At the Halfway Point of the NDP Leadership Race
In just under two months, members of Alberta’s opposition party will congregate in Calgary to learn who will lead them in the next provincial election. Now that the membership sales deadline has passed for the leadership candidates, campaign teams will now shift into persuasion mode for the next month.
Before we get to where the race currently stands, here are the remaining important dates to keep in mind:
· April 25, 2024 – Lethbridge Debate
· May 1, 2024 – Voters List issued to campaigns
· May 11, 2024 – Calgary Debate
· May 12, 2024 – Deadline to contest voters list & final $20,000 installment fee
· June 2, 2024 – Edmonton Debate
· June 3, 2024 – Deadline for party to mail ballots to members
· June 22, 2024 – Voting deadline, counting, and announcement
While the party has not issued an official release of how many memberships have been sold since the race began, last week’s speculation seems to suggest that the party has ballooned to more than 80,000 members. With all candidates spending last week selling as many last-minute memberships as possible, it is impossible to say exactly how large the party is at the time of writing.
Of course, a true testament to the momentum the party is able to kickstart as a result of this race will be how many of the new members renew their membership next year and beyond.
On the endorsement side of the leger, Naheed Nenshi (9) holds a slight lead over Kathleen Ganley (8) when it comes to sitting MLAs. Sarah Hoffman (5) rounds out the podium. Gil McGowan is the only candidate with no sitting MLA endorsements (Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse has the endorsement of 2).
What Comes Next?
Leadership races are much different from your typical general or by elections. As you have heard throughout the last couple of years, membership sales are the most important thing candidates can do to increase their odds of success.
You can think of leadership races as operating in three phases: membership sales, persuasion, and get out the vote (commonly known as GOTV). Candidates will enter the persuasion phase today as they prepare for three official party debates between now and June 2. Over the next month-and-a-half, you can expect to see the candidates begin to provide more details about what they hope to accomplish as the next leader.
Of course, you can also expect to see much more head-to-head discussion between candidates. While you shouldn’t expect to see the same fireworks you would during a general election, do not be surprised if we see things a few sparks at the debates.
How Does the Race Look Today?
It is impossible to attribute membership sales to any particular candidate right now, but the general consensus among observers is that Naheed Nenshi likely holds a substantial lead over his rivals. When Rakhi Pancholi dropped from the leadership race in March, she indicated that Nenshi likely doubled the size of the party membership in the nearly two weeks since he joined the race.
If that trend continued over the last month, it would absolutely provide a level of credibility to the current speculated membership size.
For Nenshi to be successful in this race, his path to victory comes on the first ballot – hence why membership sales are especially important for his camp. Should the ballot go beyond the first round, it is entirely possible that the end result could be an upset for another candidate. You can bet that the rest of the field is campaigning hard to sell new memberships, but also stress the importance of being ranked as members’ first or second choice for that very reason.
While it seems that Nenshi holds a commanding lead, there are still two months left in the race and three debates to go. The next month will be critical for all candidates to persuade voters to come to their respective camps and to ensure a strong GOTV effort to squeeze every possible vote they can.
For my fellow Star Wars fans, the best way to describe the next two months of the Alberta NDP leadership race is “this is where the fun begins”.
