Beware of The Ides of March By-Election

Constituents in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche riding will take to the polls to cast their vote in the upcoming by-election on March 15, 2022.  The vacancy arose when MLA Laila Goodridge resigned to run for MP in the House of Commons for the Conservative party in August. An order of the Lieutenant Governor in Council was issued on February 15th to officially trigger the start of the campaign period. The By-election must take place 28 days from when the Order in Council is issued according to the Election Act.

While the established legal procedures were unfolding, Brian Jean re-emerged onto the political stage. Jean won the nomination race held in December with 68% of the vote against Joshua Gogo. Jean will face off against NDP candidate Ariana Mancini and Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman who sees this by-election as “the most important election in Alberta’s near-term history.” 

The last by-election held in Fort McMurray was on July 12, 2018. Brian Jean resigned on March 5, 2018, several months after he was defeated by Jason Kenney in the UCP leadership race. Laila Goodridge ran as UCP candidate and won the by-election.

This will be the first by-election to occur in the 30th Legislative Assembly of Alberta. A relatively small number in comparison to the 29th Legislative Assembly running from 2015-2019, where there were five, Jean’s resignation being one of them. In 2017, Jason Kenney secured a seat in a by-election when Dave Rodney resigned in the Calgary-Lougheed riding to provide a seat for the new UCP leader. Like many past by-elections, voter turnout was low with only 35 percent of the population casting a ballot.

With this by-election, it is predicted that voter turnout will inevitably be low. In general, low voter turnout is attributed to disillusionment, indifference, or a sense of futility (the perception that one’s vote won’t make any difference). A contributing factor is that the Fort-McMurray-Lac La Biche riding has primarily been Conservative since its inception. The only exception was when the riding was won by a Liberal candidate from 1993 until 1997. Seeing how the riding is primarily Conservative, one could argue that there is very little opportunity for other parties to gain traction, making people less motivated to get out and vote when the future seems certain.

It may also seem obvious that Jean will take the riding because he is a well-known former MLA in the area. He was the MLA in Fort McMurray-Conklin for the Wildrose Party from 2015 to 2017 and then for the UCP from 2017 to 2018. He won his spot with a significant lead and is likely to be easily re-elected in the by-election.

However, unlike any other party member in Alberta’s electoral history, Jean is directly and openly gunning for the Premier’s job. Jean is highly critical of Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, believing Kenney was not hard enough with Alberta Health Services and Public Health about being transparent with Albertans over the facts. Most recently, Jean has framed the vote in the upcoming by-election as: if Kenney stays as the leader, the NDP will win the next election.

We won’t know the full impact of this by-election until the UCP members meet in Red Deer for their special general meeting and leadership review on April 9th. The members will vote and Kenney needs one-half of the party’s support to win - something not to be shrugged off despite any tactics and strategies used by Kenney and his supporters.

In 2017, the leadership race that led to Kenney being crowned leader of the UCP was filled with controversy and remains under investigation by the RCMP. Last year, 15 MLAs signed a public letter criticizing Kenney’s COVID-19 public health restrictions for being too stringent. Jean and others in the UCP’s anti-Kenney camp are frustrated over Kenney’s centralized, top-down style of governance which is significantly contrary to the “grassroots” approach he originally promised.

We know from recent polling that more than two-thirds of Albertans think Kenney deserves a leadership review and 60 percent think he should resign. The numbers also show that the NDP continues to lead with 43 percent of decided or leaning voters saying they are prepared to vote for Rachel Notley and the NDP, compared to 32 percent for Kenney’s UCP government.

Given the crippling state of Kenney’s leadership, one cannot help but ask if it’s just a coincidence that the by-election that will likely see Jean back in office falls on the Ides of March? Is this a sign of dark and gloomy times to come for the current Premier?