The Top 5 Stories to Watch in 2024

From all of us at Alberta Counsel, we hope that you had a fantastic holiday season and that your new year is off to a terrific start.

In Alberta, 2024 promises to be yet another critical year for those pursuing government relations objectives. Now that MLAs have their first sitting period of the new term under their belts, we expect to see things pick up speed quickly, starting with Budget 2024 which will be tabled before the end of February.

With that said, here are some of the key stories we will be following for the upcoming year.

1.       Pension Debate

For anyone observing post-election politics in Alberta, the pension debate was easily the number one discussion for politicos and everyday residents. In September, the provincial government released their report on the potential implementation of an Alberta Pension Plan written by LifeWorks. The report can be read here – it mostly dives into the costs, benefits, risks, and considerations of such a transition.

According to AlbertaPensionPlan.ca, the province is on track to release a panel report on the findings recorded during a number of public engagement sessions and the online survey made available by the provincial government in May.

Should the government decide to move forward with a referendum on the proposal, it is expected to be held in conjunction with the 2025 municipal election cycle.

The results of a recent survey by Leger Marketing Inc. were released earlier this week. In that poll, Leger found that:

·         69% were familiar with the proposal

·         58% believe CPP is a well-managed fund

·         56% believe that provinces that commit more to CPP should receive higher payments

·         22% were in favour of leaving the CPP in favour of a provincial plan

·         17% aged 55+ supported the plan

2.       Municipal Political Parties

In Alberta, those seeking a seat on their local councils do so as independent candidates. While some other municipalities have employed political parties at the local level, such as Vancouver and Montreal, Alberta has largely stayed away from the idea. However, the United Conservative government has been exploring the possibility of introducing party politics for municipalities.

This week, the province released the results of a government survey (run from November 7 to December 6, 2023) – and they speak to a general disagreement with the concept.

Responding to the statement “the electoral ballot should be amended to allow political parties to be listed by municipal candidates”, 60.8% of respondents indicated that they strongly disagree with the idea. Only 7.4% indicated that they strongly agree.

In a recent interview with Don Braid, Premier Danielle Smith suggested spring legislation on municipal political parties could be introduced, but no final decisions have been made.

3.       Budget 2024

When the fiscal plan is released at the end of February, it will mark the first official budget since the last provincial election. With a number of promises and changes on the table (such as the creation of a new tax bracket and changing the payment date for AISH recipients), all eyes will be focused on Finance Minister Nate Horner.

As there has been little chatter about Budget 2024 to date, there is not all that much to preview at this stage. As always, Alberta Counsel will be hosting a free budget summary webinar on March 1st to fill you in on everything that you need to know. Stay tuned to your emails and our social media for more details on how to register.

However, one budget line that everyone will be acutely focused on will be resource revenue. In the November fiscal update, it was projected that our province’s surplus would jump significantly to $5.5 billion – largely as a result of a $3.7 billion expected revenue increase over Budget 2023 numbers.

In November, WTI closed as high as $82.46. In January, the peak reached $78.01 (dropping as low as $70.38). The problem – it has been estimated that every $1 change equals about $630 million in economic impact for the province. As a result, the province could find itself in a tricky budgetary position should prices not increase in the very near future.

In an emailed statement to CBC News, Minister Horner wrote that "we need to remain focused on paying down debt and saving for the future. We are committed to reducing the debt burden on Albertans today and the next generations."

What does this mean for Budget 2024? Stay tuned for the announcement and sign up for our free webinar when registration opens.

4.       NDP Leadership Race

We won’t spend a lot of time here as we talk a bit more about the race in our next article. However, we will follow this story closely as Alberta NDP members vote on who will succeed Rachel Notley as the next leader of the official opposition. The race will come to an end on June 22 – right before the summer circuit.

At the time of writing, the leadership race has yet to formally kick-off (that will happen on February 5th.)

With that said, rumours have been swirling for some time as to who might throw their hat into the ring. Deputy Leader Sarah Hoffman has already resigned from her extra duties with the official opposition – a pretty reliable sign that she will become an official candidate when the race begins. Energy Critic Kathleen Ganley released what many considered to be a “soft-launch” of her leadership bid shortly before Notley’s official announcement earlier this month.

There has also been strong speculation that MLAs Rakhi Pancholi, Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, and David Shepherd are also organizing their leadership teams in the event they decide to put their names forward. Sources have also suggested that former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi is kicking tires on a leadership bid for the party.

We will continue to monitor and update you on leadership developments as they arise.  

5.       Cost of Living

Finally, what many consider to be the top political story in 2023 is expected to remain a hot-button issue in 2024.

According to a recent report by TD Bank, nearly 50% of respondents do not feel positive about their current situation. Additionally, 73% believe inflation and the rising cost of living are their greatest fiscal obstacles, resulting 83% hoping to make fewer retail purchases.

From groceries and entertainment to housing and utilities, it seems that few segments of the economy are unaffected by cost-of-living concerns.

We will be watching Budget 2024 to see what measures the province will introduce on this file.