Conservative Leadership at the Forefront of Alberta Politics
The little-c conservative movement is at a crossroads in our country. As you are likely all too aware, the United Conservatives are officially in the middle of their leadership review campaign and ballot process. On or about May 18th, we will learn whether Premier Jason Kenney will be permitted to remain at the helm of the UCP or if the party will be plunged into a leadership race that would likely last for months.
Of course, it isn’t only the UCP leadership question that remains at the top of mind for conservatives across the province.
For the third time in the last decade, Conservative Party of Canada members are once again being asked to decide the future of their party in another leadership race. Leadership-hopefuls are more than two months into the official campaign period that will crown Erin O’Toole’s successor on September 10th.
Entry for candidates closed on April 19th. Those hoping to vote in the leadership race must be good-standing members of the party by June 3rd. The voter’s list will be distributed to candidates on July 29th.
While many have announced their intent to run, only eight became official candidates.
• Scott Aitchison
• Leona Alleslev
• Roman Baber
• Patrick Brown
• Marc Dalton
• Jean Charest
• Leslyn Lewis
• Pierre Poilievre
In the last federal election, the Conservatives lost three seats in the Wild Rose province. In the grand scheme of things, this is a far cry from being considered a massive loss. However, it does signal that some Albertans were willing to go a different direction as a result of policy decisions that were unpopular with members under the most recent leadership. The party is not at risk of losing the province in the next election – but they absolutely need to retain support in the west if they have any hopes of forming government and solidifying their voting base.
Although Alberta is not a bellwether jurisdiction when it comes to the Conservative leadership race, little-c conservatives in our province will be observing candidates with a keen eye as we can begin to start looking at the potential impact of difference candidates here at home.
As of today, we have a clear front-runner that hopes to be the person to finally take the Conservatives back to the governing side of the aisle in the House of Commons; however, this race is still in the very early stages. It is impossible to declare an early winner at this point in time.
For the purposes of this analysis, we are going to focus on the current landscape of the race.
Early Trends and Contenders
On April 11th, Leger released a polling report that included a number of pages focused on the Conservative leadership race. Although the polling includes the names of those who did not enter the race before the April 19th deadline (Bobby Singh, Joseph Bourgault, and Joel Etienne), there was negligible impact on the findings.
According to the Leger poll, the top three candidates for the first-place ballot are Pierre Poilievre (43%), “None of these people” (19%), and Jean Charest (18%).
When it comes to second choice, the polling finds that “None of these people” (17%) leads the way with Leslyn Lewis (15%) and Jean Charest (14%) rounding out the podium. Of note – Patrick Brown trails Charest by only two per cent. On the question of who the best leader to defeat the Liberals in the next election, the results show that Poilievre leads the way with a 24-point lead over Charest.
Hindsight tells us that while the Conservatives were successful in earning more votes than the minority-Liberals, they may have lost enough traditional voters to their right-flank rival in Maxime Bernier’s PPC party. In the last election, the PPC share of the vote was greater than the margin of victory in 21 ridings where the Conservative candidate lost – fourteen of which elected Liberal MPs. Of course, it would be an oversimplification and inaccurate to say all PPC voters left the Conservatives, it does highlight that the Tories failed in their wide-umbrella approach to federal politics in 2021.
The Leger poll finds that 48 per cent of PPC-intended voters believe Poilievre is the person to defeat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Conversely, 43 per cent of Conservative-intended voters agree. For the Conservatives to return to leadership, this will be a key factor to pay attention to.
Lewis seems primed to once again have a significant impact on the outcome of the leadership race given her current share of second place intention. It would not be a surprise to see her finish in the top three when the results are announced later this year.
This is not the same race we saw between Erin O’Toole and Peter MacKay.
The Current Landscape
Despite the Conservatives objectively need to earn more votes in eastern Canada to win the next federal election, there is no question that the prairies are home to the party’s most devout base. For the most part, conservatives in Alberta traditionally have similar priorities they entrust into their political representatives at all levels – the protection of personal freedoms and fairness in confederation.
While campaigns are not won by the size of a candidate’s rally, it is impossible to ignore the turnout that Poilievre experienced in both Calgary and Edmonton earlier this month. It is not very common to see thousands attend a party event, let alone a leadership-candidate rally. While he was here, Poilievre made a promise that he would look out for one of Albertan’s key interests.
“We will give Albertans fairness in the equalization system”. He has also hinted at a piece of legislation that would require government to find equivalent savings elsewhere for every piece of extra spending the government proposes.
For Charest, his path to victory does not rely on success in the Prairies. His strategy to date has been one of reliance on his decades-long record and advocating for a more moderate approach to attract swing voters in the centre of the political spectrum.
An Angus Reid Institute poll in March found there was a clear regional divide on what the future of the Conservative Party should look like. While Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba prefer the party stay the course, a majority of respondents in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec wanted to see the party move to the middle on social issues.
This is where Charest has the best odds to succeed, so Alberta will not be a key focus for his campaign.
Patrick Brown is the wild card in this race. While Poilievre is working rooms filled with thousands of existing supporters, Brown is running a much quieter campaign by strengthening his ground game and building a network of support to push him over the top. “My path to victory is not winning the party membership. My path to victory is bringing new people in and having a decent level of support within the party.”
While the door-knocking side of campaigning is often the quietest, it is inescapably one of the most effective determiners of who wins on ballot day. If he can come to the prairies and recruit a significant number of new members for the Conservatives, there is some potential for a political upset over Poilievre.
Again, it is important to remember that campaigns are long. What is true today may not necessarily be true tomorrow. For now, it is clear that Poilievre holds a sizeable lead and is showing no signs of slowing down. However, don’t expect any of the main candidates to go down without a fight.
