A Path to Victory – Party Priorities to Win in 2023
Welcome to the final issue of The NEWS before the writ period is expected to begin on May 1. We would like to thank you for choosing us to keep you updated on all things happening in the Alberta Legislature since the last election.
We hope that you will stay with us for years to come!
Anyhow, we are about to finally reach the nearly month-long campaign that will undoubtedly impact the future of politics in this province for the foreseeable future. Given there is little expectation that any party not named the UCP or NDP will win a seat this election, Alberta will further entrench itself as a two-party province. While this means we are very likely to experience yet another majority government, it also means that both parties could experience serious internal turbulence in the event of a defeat.
United Conservative Keys to Victory
1. Don’t Lose Calgary
It is no secret that the City of Calgary is going to be ground zero for Election 2023. Rural Alberta, except for a very small handful of ridings, is expected to remain Conservative blue for the next four years. Edmonton is not going to shift away from their shade of NDP orange as they have the city pretty much locked down. Both sides need Calgary to walk away with the keys to Room 307 in the Alberta Legislature.
At the time of writing, the NDP are projected to make significant gains in Alberta’s largest city which poses a significant threat to the UCP’s hopes for re-election. Right now, the UCP hold all but three seats in Calgary and have the most to lose in the region. “Not losing” in Calgary doesn’t mean they need to nearly sweep the city again – but it does mean they need to limit the projected NDP gains as much as possible.
So, what does “not losing” Calgary look like?
The UCP needs to hold onto the Conservative stronghold ridings in the southern parts of the city. There are five “safe” seats that fit that description, meaning the only need to win 4-5 toss-up ridings. If the NDP sweep Edmonton but are limited to less than 16-17 seats in Calgary, that forces them to flip more rural seats than projected – something that is much more difficult for the NDP than the UCP. If the UCP can limit their losses in Calgary, they could very well find themselves back in government on May 29th.
2. Pivot to Bread-and-Butter Issues
Now that we have begun to see the first wave of election-style advertising circulating around online and on the air waves, we’ve been able to get a sense of how each party is focusing their pre-writ attention. For the UCP, much of their attention has been on wanting Albertans to remember why they voted the NDP out in 2019. Social media ads have focused largely on Rachel Notley, NDP candidates, and some of the policy decisions made between 2015-2019.
If the UCP hope to win the election next month, focus on how the UCP will “move Alberta forward”. The focus cannot be placed on the opposition party chomping at the bit to return to government, it needs to be on how the UCP will improve everyone’s daily lives. Stay away from the controversial subjects like the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, Alberta police force, and exiting the Canadian Pension Plan as those issues will only help the NDP.
Focus on issues like cost-of-living, tackling the opioid crisis, and improving public safety across the province within the current system.
New Democrat Priorities Keys to Victory
1. Win Calgary
You will notice that we have a similar, yet different Calgary objective. For the purposes of this election, it is important to differentiate between “winning” and “not losing”. The NDP need to make significant gains in Calgary if they want to have a hope of winning at least 44 seats on May 29 – currently they hold 3 of the 26 available seats. In order to even have a shot at forming government, the bare-minimum “win” in Calgary looks to be 18 seats, but they should try to shoot for more so they don’t have to rely on picking up incredibly challenging rural seats.
Best case scenario for the party would be to win 20-21 seats – no easy task.
By winning 18 seats, you narrow the margin of victory enough to maybe get to 44. By winning 20-21, they can give themselves a cushion in some of the other close ridings around the province. Still not easy as 18 seats only gets them to 38 seats, but that is where the next section comes in.
2. Make Gains in the Edmonton Donut
The “Edmonton Donut” refers to the ridings that border the City of Edmonton. While Edmonton dominates all but one seat in the capital, the UCP still rules the Greater Edmonton Area. For that reason, the NDP will need to target regions like Sherwood Park, Morinville, Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, and Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville if they hope to form government. There are four or five of these seats that the NDP need to win to have any real shot.
With that said, the reason we list “win Calgary” before the Edmonton Donut is that if the NDP can’t cross the 18-seat threshold there, it won’t matter what gains they make in the capital region.
General Key to Victory for Both Parties
1. Don’t Repeat the Mistakes of 2019
In 2019, we remember the UCP’s campaign moto. “Jobs. Economy. Pipelines”. Short, effective messaging that said what a Jason Kenney government would stand for. During that election, the NDP spent the vast majority of their energy and time digging in on Jason Kenney’s record and personal history. While the NDP were giving something for people to vote against, the UCP were offering something for people to vote for – something that played a part in the 2019 change in government.
Of course, you cannot completely ignore what the other party is doing or has done, but the primary focus ought to remain on sharing a vision for what the province will look like under your leadership. Running elections on insider baseball rarely does anything to move the needle on a person’s voting habits – they care about who is going to best address what they view to be their top concerns. There is a big difference between promoting yourself as the alternative and focusing your platform on your opponent.
Right now, the UCP’s primary focus in messaging has been directed largely to Rachel Notley and the NDP. The NDP have also run some negative advertising, but not to the same extent that the UCP has to date. Both parties would be wise to spend the majority of their efforts on connecting with Albertans at the kitchen table level rather than fighting an election on who would be the “worst” option to form government in May.
Again, this doesn’t mean you can’t target your opponent’s record. That is just a natural element of electoral politics. However, use these discussions as jumping-off points to showcase differences in policy and how your vision would be better for Albertans.
It isn’t enough to not be the other guys.
