Mapping Out the Next 12 Months in Alberta
The election is over. Cabinet is sworn-in (MLAs, too). Mandate letters are out.
So, now what?
When our newest batch of elected officials take their seats for the first time on October 30th, the first sitting of the 31st Legislature will officially begin. By that time, it will have been 154 days since the election was held. With a lengthy break and 30 new MLAs ready to go, you won’t have to wait long before the usual fireworks start erupting in Question Period.
While twelve months may not seem like a significant amount of time, we will be nearly one-quarter of the way through this new term when the calendar flips to August 2024. With that said, come along for the ride as we map out what the next year has in store for Alberta politics.
October
Given that there was a little thing called an election between the most recent sitting and today, the start of session will look a little different than it normally would. When sittings begin at the end of this month, they will begin with a Speech from the Throne read by Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani (assuming King Charles III declines to attend).
The throne speech kicks off new sessions for the Legislature with a formal address intended to outlines the priorities of the current government. Although read into the record by the Lieutenant Governor, the speech itself is written by the leader of the government (in this case, Premier Danielle Smith).
And this rendition of the throne speech is an important one.
Unlike the Jason Kenney-era UCP, the current party did not issue a 114-page platform with hundreds of itemized policy proposals for voters to review. Although we do have ministerial mandate letters that we can refer to, the mandate of this current government has a high-degree of flexibility in it that the public may not be accustomed to. What this means is we can expect the UCP to stick to a number of general themes, but the application of which may not yet be determined outside of what is known in the mandate letters.
Bill 1
During the election, Danielle Smith told Albertans exactly what she would table as her first bill in the Legislature should the UCP be re-elected as government. For that reason, we should know exactly what is coming down for the first piece of legislation in October.
Bill 1 is expected to be the Tax Protection Amendment Act in response to the NDP’s proposal to increase the corporate tax rate to 11 per cent. As it currently stands, the Act requires a referendum be completed if a government were to attempt to implement a form of a provincial sales tax. Premier Smith plans to expand upon the premise.
In addition to requiring a referendum on a PST, the proposed changes (as indicated during the election) would extend to increases in personal and business tax rates in the province.
In a similar vain, the UCP also committed to creating a new tax bracket for those who earn less than $60,000 per year.
Budget 2024
Perhaps one of the most important events to occur over the next twelve months will be the next provincial budget. In the year end report released by the government, it is expected that the surplus will dip to $2.4 billion in 2023-24 with a slow decline to $1.4 billion in 2025-26. As this budget is heavily centred on resource revenues, it is nearly impossible to predict exactly what the actual numbers will look like come budget day.
In the next budget, we will get a better sense of the timing for implementation on a number of key platform promises (such as the Calgary arena which still requires ratification by Cabinet at the time of writing. Looping back to the Bill 1 discussion earlier in this article, it will be interesting to learn what tools the provincial government will have at its disposal for revenue generators outside of tax increases. Of course, there are many ways to improve revenue streams without looking at tax hikes – this is more in reference to what the revenue strategy will look like going forward (outside of natural resource royalties).
Consultations typically begin in mid-late fall prior to budget season. Organizations that wish to send their budget submissions or requests to the provincial government should begin working to develop their proposals in the near future to get ahead of the curve. Organizations and other groups would be wise to frame their requests and proposals in such a way that it aligns with the goals of this government as that with improve your odds of success.
The Future of the NDP
Following this spring’s electoral loss, there was immediate speculation about how the results would shape the next four years for the province’s official opposition party. When leader Rachel Notley has been asked about her plans, she has been consistent in saying that she will take the time needed to decide what is best for herself and the party going forward.
Should Notley decide to stay on as party leader going into the next election, the rest of this discussion becomes moot. However, should she decide that it is time to step away, the timing of such a decision will be crucial to the success of the party in 2027.
Frankly, it was the correct decision for her to announce her intention to stay on as party leader following the election loss. Although it was the NDP’s second consecutive loss, having stability at the top at a time when the opposition caucus has grown significantly with rookie MLAs and an abundance of new staff available to them, having a steady force to steer the ship through rough seas will be a benefit to all in the NDP.
The last thing the party would need is to be conducting a leadership race immediately following an election with little to no time to prepare for the first sitting in October.
Should Notley decide it is time to hang up her skates, the first logical opportunity to do so would be following the fall sitting when it wraps up in December. That way, every MLA will have one sitting under their belt and will be more familiar with how the Legislature works as an elected official.
The next logical time would be following the spring 2024 sitting once the provincial budget has been passed. This would allow plenty of time for the party to ready itself for a leadership race and give possible candidates an opportunity to organize themselves for the contest.
Of course, waiting too long to make the decision could have a negative impact on the party (in the event she decides to resign as leader). The last thing the opposition would want is to not leave themselves enough runway for a new leader to establish themselves and prepare the party for the next election.
Organizational Readiness
With the first sitting of the new Legislature only a few short months away, now is the time for your organization to prepare your government relations strategy. You can read our previous article on this subject here.
Alberta Counsel’s expert team of government relations professionals are eminently qualified and experienced in navigating the provincial government. We have helped groups from dozens of sectors successfully advocate their issues to decision makers to help implement positive change for their organization and those they serve.
If you would like to learn more about what we do, give us a call at (780)652-1311 or email info@albertacounsel.com.
