Lethbridge-West By-Election: Updates and Speculation

About 1 month ago, my colleague Aileen Burke and I jointly wrote an article previewing the upcoming by-election in Lethbridge-West. We would encourage you to read that article as it provides some of the important historic and demographic contexts necessary to understand the political landscape of the future battleground.

You can read the article by visiting this link.

In this article, we will build on the preview article and discuss the current status of both the United Conservative and New Democrat nomination periods as there has been enough movement in the past week to warrant such a quick revisit.

Additionally, we will take some time to explore two potential timings for the by-election to take place and explain why we think one is more likely than the other.

UCP Updates

Last week, the nomination periods for both of the parties with seats in the Alberta Legislature officially opened. The United Conservatives have opened a very small window for prospective candidates to put their names forward to the local nomination committee. The process began on August 8th and will conclude on August 22nd at 5:00 PM.

At the time of writing, there do not appear to be any candidates that have declared their intention to run for the nomination.

Once the recruitment period closes on August 22nd, it is believed that candidates will have a short three to five week campaign window to secure their nomination. If this is correct, the UCP will have a named candidate sometime between September 12th and October 3rd.

In an interview with Lethbridge-West UCP Constituency Association President Davey Wiggers (featured in the Lethbridge Herald), it sounds like multiple people may have put their names forward already.

“My understanding is, because it’s all very private until all the protocols have been followed, that there are applicants (who) have applied to the executive director to be a nomination candidate.”

NDP Updates

On the incumbent side of the ballot, the nomination process is also well underway. While less information about the NDP process is available publicly, we do know that the nomination race will conclude with a vote on September 7th.

We also know that two individuals have announced that they will be seeking the nomination (at the time of writing.)

Rob Miyashiro

A familiar face to the Alberta NDP, Rob Miyashiro is taking his second crack at earning a seat in the Alberta Legislature. During the 2023 provincial election, he ran in Lethbridge-East, coming 636 votes short of beating incumbent Minister Nathan Neudorf.

Most well known for his time as in municipal politics, Miyashiro served as a city councillor in Lethbridge from 2013-2021. In addition to his civic service, Rob has served as the executive director of the Lethbridge Senior Citizens Organization for 16 years and spent much of his career in both non-profit and government roles supporting at risk youth.

His is a name many expected to see enter this race.

Bridget Mearns

Another former city councillor in Lethbridge has decided to throw her hat into the ring for the nomination. Bridget Mearns served on city council from 2010-2017 and most recently ran for mayor of the southern Alberta city in 2021.

She came in second to Blaine Hyggen by a small margin of 508 votes.

She is currently an executive officer with BILD Lethbridge, an organization that advocates for the housing sector and supports those working within it. Her mother is the former MLA for Lethbridge-East for both the Alberta Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.

By-Election Timing

Based on everything outlined above, both of Alberta’s major parties should be expected to have their respective candidates in place for the Lethbridge-West by-election before Thanksgiving at the latest. This open up two possibilities for the timing of the by-election being called.

While we do not have inside information about when exactly the call will be made, we have enough information to make educated guesses.

First, it is important to remember who has the power to call the by-election to begin with. The Lieutenant Governor in Council orders the Chief Electoral Officer to issue a writ of election. This is done on the advice of Cabinet.

In this instance, the by-election must be called by January 1, 2025 (though the vote does not need to occur before then).

The Early Option

With both of the nomination periods coming to an end in the late-summer/early-fall, there remains an option to trigger the by-election before the Legislature returns on October 28th – if not slightly after.

A big reason one might lean to this option would be to ensure that every seat in the Legislature is filled during an important fall sitting. It is also much easier to mobilize a campaign when the Legislature is not sitting and to create an “all hands on deck” approach to the race.

On the other hand, the government may have some hesitancy in calling the election before the upcoming UCP AGM at the beginning of November. 

The 2025 Option

This is where the (in this writer’s opinion, more likely) option of a January 2025 race comes into play. For the same reasons as the early option, it allows the candidates to campaign outside of the sitting period.

However, an important variable that normally would not be in play during a by-election is the leadership review of Danielle Smith, currently scheduled to happen at the UCP AGM on November 1st and 2nd in Red Deer. With the NDP recently selecting a new leader and the UCP having lost a considerable number of seats in the last election, the Lethbridge-West by-election is an important one for Premier Smith and her party. They will be looking to secure the other Lethbridge seat and add another conservative voice to the Legislature.

With that said, the seat has belonged to the Alberta NDP since 2015, so it will not be a seat the official opposition will let go easily. It is expected to be a tightly contested race for both parties, so no result is a foregone conclusion.

If the UCP were to lose this by-election before the leadership review, Premier Smith would be increasing the potential risk of losing support at the AGM. Of course, the inverse would be true if the UCP were to win the seat. But if it is not a “sure-thing” (if there is such a thing in Alberta politics), why risk it?

For that reason, this writer believes that the by-election will be called sometime after the holidays in December. As with any prediction, this is simply an educated guess based on the best information available, so stay tuned for further updates.