Parties Locked in a Dead Heat Halfway Through Election 2023

We are thirteen days away from learning which party will lead our province for the next four years, and the only thing that has become clear is neither the UCP nor NDP have been able to build a meaningful lead that will propel them to electoral victory on May 29.

 And there really is not much time left for either party to do that.

In the final issue of The NEWS before the election results come out, we will look at how the campaign has gone so far, discuss potential adjustments, and look ahead to this week’s leadership debate.

Wildfire Impact on Election 2023

The one thing no politico, pollster, or insider could have factored into the election before it was called was the widespread wildfires across the province. Tens of thousands of people and their families have been forced to leave their homes behind as responders battle blazes in what could potentially be a record-breaking year for hectares burned during wildfire season.

To be absolutely, positively clear – the wildfires are not (and should not) be a political tool or wedge issue. Danielle Smith has called the emergency cabinet committee into service and included Rachel Notley in briefings. But while the fires are not political, they could have an impact on the election.

Yellowhead County Mayor Wade Williams has written to the members of Alberta Municipalities asking for support in calling for the provincial election to be postponed.

“This election is nothing but a distraction at this point. When we, Albertans, need every government official to roll up their sleeves and fight for this province before we don’t have a province to come back to.”

Neither the UCP nor NDP have committed one way or another on the subject of postponement.

There is also the impact of voter displacement to bear in mind when considering the impact of the fires on the election. While there are provisions in the Elections Act that allow for a change in location for voting stations and postponing a vote, it is a significant challenge for Elections Alberta to be able to reach the tens of thousands of people displaced to let them know where and when they can cast their ballot.

In the event a delay in voting were to occur, the riding would effectively be treated as a by-election within six months of the cancelled vote.

Parties Fighting to Set Ballot Question

With one week to go before advanced polling stations open across the province, both the UCP and NDP are in a fierce messaging battle. The prize – setting the question they hope Albertans will ask themselves when deciding who they want to lead the province going forward. While every person votes according to their own political/moral/priority compass, the party that is able to set a definitive “theme” that voters and candidates respond to generally has the most success.

For both major parties, there are no real surprises with respect to how they would like this election framed. Of course, there is some similarity in the promises being made (ie. attracting healthcare workers to Alberta, affordabilty) that are simply constructed differently.

For the UCP, the focus has been on improving affordability for Albertans while also trying to use the NDP’s record of governance from 2015-2019 against them.

On May 1, the party launched in Calgary with their promise to create a new tax bracket for those earning under $60,000 per year (which would also reduce the tax bill of those earning more than $60,000 per year). Key messaging coming from UCP candidates since the election began have focused heavily on creating a messaging arc that focuses on the initiatives the party has taken to improve affordability while comparing themselves to the previous government, suggesting things will “go back to the way they were”.

For the NDP, they are placing the focus on leadership trust and health care improvements.

Last week’s headlines were dominated by the party sharing incredibly controversial videos of Danielle Smith from recent years on the subject of those vaccinated against COVID-19, operation of Alberta hospitals, and how military should be in charge of the next health crisis, not medical professionals. While both parties put forward a number of platform items last week, many of those were drowned out by debate and discussion of these released videos.

Polling

This is an interesting election for polling. At this stage, there has not really been a great deal released since the campaign kicked off. Of the polls we do have to look at, many are pointing to Abacus who has the NDP at 43% to the UCP’s 35% province wide. This also includes an 8-point lead for the New Democrats in Calgary.

While this is the most reputable pollster to release data since the election was called, it is important to remember that polls are just a snapshot in time. Polling is best used in a way that identifies trends rather than predicts election outcomes – especially with how quickly the political landscape can change during a campaign. Right now, the trend shows the NDP are keeping pace with the United Conservatives where it matters, but there is still so much that can change for both parties that neither should hang their hats on these particular results.

Going Forward – Debate and Advanced Voting

On Thursday, May 18th, Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley will square off for a televised leader debate. It is rare for a debate to dramatically impact the results of an election – especially this late in the cycle. However, that does not mean that it is impossible (after all, the “math is hard” quote comes from Debate 2015).

It will be curious to see to what degree the debate will play a role in voting. Not only is the debate happening somewhat late, it is also scheduled immediately before the May long weekend. With many Albertans looking forward to the unofficial kickoff to summer and camping season, the timing could have a muted affect on the debate’s impact.

The thing to watch in this election is to what extent each leader focuses on the other’s record. We are in a rare position where both participants have recent records as Premier of Alberta. Will the that dominate the debate, or will there be an emphasis on what each would do if given the opportunity to be Premier again?

I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d put my money on a healthy balance of both.

Local campaigns are beginning to work on their GoTV (get out the vote) efforts with advanced polling opening next week. If you’ve donated to a campaign or have supported one as a volunteer, expect to start receiving calls, emails, and texts asking you if you have made a voting plan and encouraging you to lock in your vote early.

There are pros and cons to voting early. On the one hand, you generally get to avoid the longer lines at voting stations and you can focus your time and attention on different things. On the other, you no longer have the benefit of changing your mind if something occurs between your vote and Election Day.

On a balance, voting early generally is more positive than it is negative as early voters have typically decided how they will vote much earlier in the campaign. It would take a seismic shift for a decided voter to change their minds in the days between advanced voting and election day, but wilder things have happened in Alberta.

No matter how or when you cast your ballot, we encourage all of our readers to be active and engaged voters. Regardless of the outcome, this election will have a significant impact on the direction our province will go for years to come, so make your voice heard and make a plan to vote.

Thank you for reading The NEWS for the last number of years. We are excited to continue providing you insights into all things Alberta politics when all the dust settles on Election 2023 and into the next term.