Alberta’s Election Battleground – Four Ridings to Watch
In the federal elections which have occurred over the last decade, only a combined six seats have gone to a party other than the Conservatives. Canada’s prairie provinces (specifically Alberta and Saskatchewan) have a long history of having an ideological right-lean when it comes to who they send to Ottawa, so that stat should be expected. Although this election will be decided long before our province’s polling stations close, that does not mean that there will be a lack of interesting races to follow here at home. Here, we will take a look at some of the most competitive ridings in the province and try to make sense of the polling numbers.
For reference, polling data is collected from 338Canada and riding maps are from Elections Canada.
Calgary Skyview
CPC: Jagdeep Sahota (37.0%)
LPC: George Chahal (35.5%)
NDP: Gurinder Singh Gill (21.8%)
Conservative Jagdeep Sahota just finished her first term as the MP for Calgary Skyview and won more than 52% of the popular vote in the last election. She also ran a provincial election campaign in 2015, falling to current Calgary-McCall MLA Irfan Sabir. In the last session, she worked as the shadow minister for Women and Gender Equality.
Conservative Jagdeep Sahota just finished her first term as the MP for Calgary Skyview and won more than 52% of the popular vote in the last election. She also ran a provincial election campaign in 2015, falling to current Calgary-McCall MLA Irfan Sabir. In the last session, she worked as the shadow minister for Women and Gender Equality.
The Liberals nominated another candidate who is coming off his first term as an elected official, though his seat was on Calgary City Council for Ward 5 (most of which falls within the federal boundaries of this riding). He had initially announced his intentions to run for re-election in his ward, but ultimately decided to shift his campaign to the federal election’s battleground.
In the early days of the 2021 campaign season, Calgary Skyview was the host site for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s only visit to our province. Of all the ridings in Alberta’s largest city, this one is perhaps the most likely to see a close race on election day. The vast majority of this riding consist of middle-aged professionals working across a wide range of industries, so a tight race in this constituency is to be expected.
This is a seat that the Liberals hope to once again turn red after losing the riding in 2019. Provincially, the riding has seen a split of left and right leaning voters in the three provincial constituencies falling in its boundaries which should translate to a tight race federally. At this point of the election, both the Conservatives and Liberals have held small leads in the polls which should result in both candidates stepping their efforts up further to win over undecided voters.
Calgary – Centre
CPC – Greg McLean (40.3%)
LPC – Sabrina Grover (38.7%)
NDP – Juan Estevez Moreno (12.6%)
In 2019, Conservative Greg McLean ran an incredibly strong campaign that resulted in a decisive victory over former Liberal Minister Kent Hehr in the riding. During his first term as a Member of Parliament, McLean held a number of shadow cabinet positions, including for Natural Resources, CanNor, and National Revenue. Although he currently holds a large slice of the popular support pie, this race is not shaping up to the landslide we saw in the last election.
Liberal Sabrina Grover has been making a race of the traditionally conservative-leaning riding. She is the principal for a local public relations firm and brings a history of work in government relations and global organizations. Interestingly, she also has experience on the conservative side of Alberta’s political scene, having volunteered for the now-defunct Progressive Conservative Party – including campaign experience working on now-Minister Ric McIver’s leadership bid in 2014.
Given the above, Calgary – Centre voters face an interesting choice which helps to explain why the race is close as it has been thus far. Like this riding’s Edmonton counterpart, it is densely populated with a younger professional population with most holding a post-secondary education. Provincially, the riding is split evenly between progressive and conservative voters (including Minister Doug Schweitzer’s Calgary – Elbow).
Edmonton Mill Woods
CPC – Tim Uppal (37.8%)
LPC – Ben Henderson (37.8%)
NDP – Nigel Logan (18.5%)
In the grand scheme of things, Edmonton Mill Woods is a very new riding which has only participated in two elections after being redrawn in advance of the 2015 election (formerly Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont). What makes this a fascinating riding to follow is that prior to the redraw, residents typically sent their incumbent back to the House of Commons – a trend that did not continue in it’s current iteration. Edmontonians likely remember very well the incredibly narrow win of Amarjeet Sohi in 2015 that went to a recount followed by Tim Uppal regaining a seat in Ottawa in the rematch of 2019.
Edmonton’s outgoing Ward 8 councillor Ben Henderson has been making this yet another close race for the Liberals in southeast Edmonton (which is currently dead even). Both Uppal and Henderson are incredibly experienced campaigners with the former having run in every federal election since the turn of the century while the latter has been a city councillor since 2007. While neither of these candidates live in the riding, Uppal faced some criticism in the last election for announcing his intentions of living in Ottawa instead of his constituency.
Edmonton Mill Woods is one of the most diverse ridings in the country, so competitive electoral races ought to be expected. The provincial ridings which fall in these borders historically vote for progressive candidates, but the votes accumulated for the UCP candidates in the 2019 election should reflect a small-c conservative base does exist in the area. However, the Conservatives would need to see almost 9,000 votes flip to lose this seat – a prospect that would be a significant loss for the Tories. If voting intention is to be believed here, we are in for one of the closest races of 2021.
Edmonton – Centre
CPC – James Cummi
ng (35.0%)
LPC – Randy Boissonnault (34.4%)
NDP – Heather McKenzie (24.9%)
This riding’s residents should be very familiar with both the Conservative and Liberal candidates as they are the last two individuals to hold this seat. With that said, the degree of NDP support could be welcome news to the Conservatives as there exists very real potential for a vote split. However, Boissonnault’s 2015 victory happened notwithstanding similar New Democrat support, so the Liberals could also be experiencing déjà vu.
This may be the only riding in the entire province that can be accurately described as a three-party race. While NDP candidate Heather McKenzie has an outside chance at turning Edmonton – Centre orange for the first time, her campaign indeed falls within the margin of error for an upset victory.
The last two elections have been close between the Conservative and Liberals. Boissonnault narrowly defeated Cumming in 2015 (approximately 1,200 votes) and was subsequently appointed as the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Canadian Heritage by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Cumming won the rematch in 2019 by a wider margin of around 4,500 votes and has been working as Erin O’Toole’s critic for COVID-19 economic recovery. Cumming also held the position of critic for Small Business and Export Promotion under former leader Andrew Scheer.
This region has a history of voting both Liberal and Conservative, but provincially it has a strong progressive base – making the federal results all the more interesting. The riding has a very young and diverse working population, which could be a possible indicator of how the next generation of Canadians could vote in future elections. Regional factors aside, Canada’s top-three parties should be paying close attention to how the vote in Edmonton – Centre shapes up on September 20th.
Honourable Mention - Edmonton Greisbach
While this riding is still currently projecting a return to Ottawa for Conservative Kerry Diotte, Edmonton Griesbach represents the NDP’s best prospects of adding a second Alberta MP to their roster this election. Blake Desjarlais is the Director of Public Affairs & National Operations for the Metis Settlement General Council and currently falls strongly within the margin of error for an electoral victory. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh visited the riding in week one of the campaign and was also joined by Edmonton – Strathcona MP Heather McPherson which is an indicator that the party is pushing hard to flip this seat. Diotte has been the MP in the riding since 2015 and also served as a city councillor after being elected in 2010 and lost a mayoral bid in 2013.