All Election Results Lead to Further Unease Between Alberta and Ottawa

Back in the heyday of the now-defunct Reform Party, the battle cry of “the west wants in” could be heard throughout the prairie provinces in an effort to advocate for a more equal relationship between the west and the rest. For decades, the impression (read: reality) that western provinces rarely have a significant impact on the outcome of federal elections has been a wedge issue right-leaning parties have driven into the heart of domestic affairs, albeit with no tangible results.

Following the 2019 federal election that saw the Liberals win a minority mandate despite the Tories winning the popular vote, there was a significant shift in the voice and message coming from the disenfranchised Canadians out west – especially in Alberta where many of these sentiments percolate.

‘The west wants out’.

This is not to say that all of those dissatisfied with the state of Canadian federalism are suddenly separatists, but there were some segments of the population that felt strongly enough about this perspective that Wexit Alberta and the Maverick Party were able to mobilize to some extent. In Alberta, about 2.7% of voting intentions are currently leaning towards supporting the Mavericks, so this represents a vocal minority of political opinion.

Of course, we see no reason to believe that the traditionally strong Conservative base in Alberta is going to shift to voting red in this election. Even if we were to see the Tories lose a handful of seats, it would not be interpreted to project the beginning of the end for conservatism in the province. With that in mind, both the Liberals and Tories have very good odds at forming a minority government when the ballots of September 20th are counted.

Here, we will take a look at some of the possible futures that our provincial government will be dealt depending on who forms the next government this fall. While the UCP have an obvious preferred result, it likely will not translate to smooth sailing – even if the provincial government’s hopes are realized.

The Consequences of a Liberal Minority

As of this moment, it appears very possible that we could see a repeat of the last federal election which saw the Conservative party secure the most votes while the Liberals walk away with a plurality of seats. Albertans would likely experience some degree of déjà vu should this hypothetical become reality, resulting in a spike in anti-federalism sentiment that led to the establishment of the Fair Deal panel in our province.

Following the 2019 federal election, the UCP attempted to capitalize on this pro-west support by stoking the flames of disenfranchisement with Ottawa. We even see the remnants of this political strategy in 2021 in the form of the debate on the Liberal’s $10-per-day childcare policy. Alberta did not sign onto the intergovernmental agreement as the provincial government sought to receive the same ‘no strings attached’ agreement that was made with Quebec. However, voting intention for the UCP began to dwindle following the last election rather than resurrect popular support for the government, representing a failure to score on a breakaway with an open net.

For the UCP, the return of a Liberal government births an opportunity to correct the errors of 2019 and regain some of the political capital lost since. A Liberal win gives the provincial government a channel changer – a desperately needed lifeline for Premier Jason Kenney and his team. For this strategy to be successful, the party would need to capitalize on growing populist feelings, especially if the Conservatives once again win the popular vote and find themselves in opposition.

Federal policy will be status quo should the Liberals win, so there is not too much to say with respect to how Alberta will be impacted. However, a Liberal win could very well force the UCP to fight a two-front battle in the next provincial election – a battle that the provincial government would prefer not to exist.

While provincial polling has not been updated since early August due to the federal election, some of the most recent results are beginning to project support for the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta. In August, the Wildrose were sitting around 11.9% while the UCP are sitting 4-points back of the NDP at about 37.6% (according to 338Canada). While the Wildrose vote would not pose much danger in Edmonton nor Calgary, there is absolutely some potential for the province’s independence party to cause a split of rural support. As rural Alberta represents the strongest base of support for the governing party, any erosion of support from a competing right-flank would be of concern to the UCP.

The Consequences of a Conservative Minority

From the UCP’s perspective, a Conservative minority obviously represents the second most desirable outcome (second only to a Tory majority). The party’s platform includes sections dedicated to fiscal fairness to our province by citing changes to equalization. The UCP government would, of course, be supportive of platform items such as changes to Bill C-69 and funding towards hydrogen and small modular reactor technology – all initiatives of significant importance to the party here in Alberta.

At a high-level, a Tory victory provides a degree of validation for the UCP as they will be able to point to the country voting in favour of policies that will be to our province’s benefit. But like all generalities, such oversimplification omits important details that paint less of a rosy future for our provincial government.

A cornerstone of Premier Jason Kenney’s 2019 platform was centred around fighting for Alberta on the national level by taking the fight right to the Liberals. Many people voted for the UCP in-part because of their promise to get Alberta a ‘fair deal’ in confederation. While a Conservative win does plenty to mitigate this anti-federalism rhetoric and mark an indirect victory for the UCP, it does present certain issues for their strategy. Outside of the Tories putting forward their own carbon pricing plan in place of the Liberals, the UCP and Conservatives appear to have a difference of opinion of equalization.

You are likely well aware that Alberta will be voting on an equalization referendum question on October 18th. The question reads “should Section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 — Parliament and the Government of Canada's commitment to the principle of making equalization payments — be removed from the Constitution?”. The O’Toole-led Conservatives may pose a problem in achieving this goal. Notwithstanding the procedural and legal issues of removing equalization from the constitution (which you can read in previous issues of The NEWS), it does not appear that even a Conservative-majority would lead to support in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives have pitched the Equalization and Transfers Fairness Act which they would table as soon as possible. Essentially, the bill would implement the proposal made by Canadian premiers in 2019 that sought to lift caps on payments and reducing the thresholds to qualify, applying the changes retroactively. While this is something that would likely be seen as a win internally for the UCP, there are issues with the Conservatives taking a different stance.

You see, the result of a constitutional referendum becomes automatically binding in Alberta, meaning the government is required to do everything within it’s power to ensure the democratic will of the population is upheld. Based on the wording of the question, the UCP would be forced to fight with O’Toole to remove the principal of equalization from the constitution entirely – something the Conservatives do not appear willing to do.

This puts Premier Jason Kenney in a clear lose-lose position when it comes to the referendum. If Albertans vote ‘no’ in October, it would represent the failure of a key platform promise on which the UCP were elected. If Albertans vote ‘yes’ with the Conservatives in power, the provincial government will no longer be able to fall back on the populist position that the Liberals prefer to give a fair deal to Quebec while holding Alberta back.

While it may seem odd to read (because it feels odd to type), a Conservative victory could actually represent a significant challenge for Jason Kenney and the UCP going into the 2023 provincial election. It should not be forgotten that Premier Kenney endorsed O’Toole for the leadership of the Conservative Party in 2020, putting him in a clear conflict with himself.

Additionally, endorsing the premiers’ proposal while simultaneously being forced to advocate against it as a result of the referendum would be less-than-ideal for the premier.