That’s All, Folks – Final Session Before Election 2023 Adjourns

Alberta’s MLAs have wrapped up their final sitting day one week early, setting up a five-and-a-half week buffer zone before the writ period begins on May 1, 2023. Incumbent MLAs are technically still on the job until the Legislature is dissolved by the Lieutenant Governor, but the next month will be an opportune time to put the final pieces in place for what is anticipated to be an incredibly tight race.

I hope you will indulge me in sharing a bit of my nerdy side, but to quote Anakin Skywalker “this is where the fun begins.”

We will have a number of issues dedicated to Election 2023 coverage, so keep an eye on your inbox to ensure you are up to date on what is happening on the campaign trail. For now, we will use this opportunity to take a retrospective look at the spring session.

A Final Farewell to Select MLAs

Although we are still waiting for a decision from Minister Travis Toews on whether or not he intends to seek re-election, the past months have provided some insight into which MLAs will not be returning to the Alberta Legislature when the next government takes office. Some have opted to not run in the upcoming election, others lost their nomination race. Regardless of the circumstance, we would like to thank all MLAs for their service to our province.

·         Leela Aheer (UCP)

·         Tracy Allard (UCP)

·         Deron Bilous (NDP)

·         Drew Barnes (IND)

·         Jon Carson (NDP)

·         Thomas Dang (IND)

·         Richard Feehan (NDP)

·         Laila Goodridge (UCP)*

·         Richard Gotfried (UCP)

·         David Hanson (UCP)

·         Jason Kenney (UCP)*

·         Chris Nielsen (NDP)

·         Ron Orr (UCP)

·         Pat Rehn (UCP)

·         Roger Reid (UCP)

·         Brad Rutherford (UCP)

·         Rajan Sawhney (UCP)

·         Doug Schweitzer (UCP)*

·         Mark Smith (UCP)

·         Tany Yao (UCP)

*Already resigned their seat

At least 22% of incumbent MLAs will not be returning to the Legislature – we will find out after May 29th exactly how much turnover we can expect to see from 2023-2027.

High Profile Bills

Despite the past number of weeks resulting in a relatively quiet sitting, newly-minted Premier Danielle Smith used the opportunity for her government to pass two high-profile bills. Of course, we are referencing the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act and the Inflation Relief Statutes Amendment Act, 2022.

With respect to Premier Smith’s cornerstone proposal from the UCP leadership race this fall, the tabling of this legislation may be one of the top stories of this session. It has yet to be triggered by the province, but remains in the back pocket of the provincial government should it ever elect to use its legislative powers.

Earlier this month, Post Media reported that Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani’s comments on the policy (prior to its introduction in the Assembly) had drawn attention from Governor General Mary Simon. In a briefing note, it was written that “the Governor General may be concerned that her view will be sought on the appropriateness of Lt.-Gov. Lakhani’s comments and/or that the lieutenant governor will ultimately seek to reserve the legislation for the Governor General’s consideration.” The note was prompted by Lakhani’s suggestion that “we are a constitutional monarchy, and this is where we do checks and balances. I’m what I would call a ‘constitutional fire extinguisher.’ We don’t have to use it a lot, but sometimes we do have to use it.”

The inflation relief legislation tabled has recently attracted additional attention in recent weeks as well. Of course, the bill itself is what allowed the province to offer inflation relief payments of $100 each month from January to June. However, the recent news on this subject was tied to government advertising.

In Question Period, NDP Leader Rachel Notley questioned government members about a proposed multi-million-dollar increase to the advertising allotment of the affordability payments.

“Back in 2012 the Premier and her Wildrose caucus were apoplectic when the then PC Premier announced $400,000 for advertising. Back then the Premier’s executive director accused the Tories of using taxpayers’ money as their own, quote, campaign piggy bank. Well, this Premier’s piggy bank is a heck of a lot fatter.”

Finance Minister Travis Toews indicated money is being used for the Alberta is Calling campaign as well as to ensure Albertans are aware of the affordability payments, but he also offered a retort to the former premier.

“My question to the Leader of the Opposition is this. Back in 2018-19 they spent $25 million in advertising ahead of the election. What did Albertans get for that?”

Budget 2023

Finally, the provincial government tabled what will go down as the final fiscal plan of the 30th Legislature in Alberta on February. Once again, the province is projecting a surplus for the duration of the plan. Fortunately for the books, the budget was a benefactor of strong WTI pricing with projections of some level of stability for the next few years.

March saw quite a high level of market volatility for WTI as it continues to be impacted by numerous factors, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We reached a high of $80.46US/bbl on March 6, but dropped quickly to a low of $66.74US/bbl as of St. Patrick’s Day.

On March 15th, economist Trevor Tombe wrote that “at this morning’s oil price and exchange rate, Alberta would have a ~$5 billion deficit.”

Now, oil markets are always quite volatile, even at the best of times. However, Alberta’s balanced budget is heavily reliant on strong returns on bitumen royalties from oil and gas companies. This recent fluctuation should serve as a reminder that our surplus is never guaranteed, but it should also serve as a warning to whoever forms the next government that tabling consistently balanced budgets (notwithstanding the new fiscal framework prohibiting deficits) may prove to be quite the challenge.

Strap yourselves in – election season is about to kick into high gear.