Analyzing the State of the UCP Leadership Race – Early Trends Emerging

The race for UCP leadership - and premiership - is now well underway with the pool of contenders starting to firm up. While we may still not have the full picture of who is in and who is out, June has nevertheless given us some valuable insight into the race.

The Starting Gun

Travis Toews was first out of the gate, officially launching his campaign in Calgary on June 4th. The launch showed off the support he enjoys within the UCP caucus with many of the 24 MLAs endorsing him in the audience. In the weeks following his launch, Toews has been one of the most well travelled of the candidates, focusing heavily on rural Alberta. The Toews campaign has already made dozens of stops in small communities in all parts of the province but also spent time in Calgary. The former finance minister will need to show that he is a viable option in the key battleground. The Toews campaign also held a fairly well attended event at the River Cree in Edmonton three weeks after the launch.  

Both Brian Jean and Danielle Smith had already announced their intentions months ago but have taken different approaches to officially launching their campaigns. Jean opted to have two launch events (one in Edmonton and Calgary) with a couple of hundred people in attendance. Outside of the two launch events, Jean’s social media channels have been relatively quiet about where he is spending his time.

The Smith campaign organized a series of small events at the beginning of June around central Alberta, also focusing on the rural population.  

Rajan Sawhney made her announcement on June 13 in Edmonton at a media event and then drove south on QEII with a stop in Angela Pitt’s riding before ending the day in Northeast Calgary with an impressive crowd of 700 in attendance. Most of her campaign’s focus since the announcement has been on Calgary and the surrounding area.

Rebecca Schulz launched her campaign on June 14 in Calgary with a modest crowd of about 50 people and has since spent the majority of her time in Calgary and Medicine Hat.

Todd Loewen, meanwhile, launched his campaign in his hometown of Valleyview on June 7 with about 100 people in attendance while Leela Aheer held a lowkey event with family and friends in Chestermere on June 8th. The Loewen campaign has ventured out towards central Alberta and Edmonton while the Aheer campaign so far seems to be staying close to home.

The Bill Rock campaign does not appear to have a campaign website and has not posted about any events so far.

Endorsements

The endorsement race is quite lopsided in favour of Travis Toews so far with 24 MLAs backing him, as well as MP Chris Warkentin and fomer Enoch Cree Nation Chief Billy Morin. Endorsements will only take a campaign so far, of course, as many previous conservative leadership races can attest. Complicating Toews’ endorsement list is that the vast majority of the MLAs on the list are Jason Kenney loyalists which could impact his campaign if the mood of voters is about change rather than stability and continuity.

Rebecca Schulz comes in as a distant second with 4 MLA endorsements, including the current Minister of Health Jason Copping, MLA Brad Rutherford, as well as MP Laila Goodridge. More impressively, she also has the endorsements of respected conservatives like Brad Wall, Rona Ambrose, and Laureen Harper.

Despite his head start in fighting for the removal of Premier Kenney, Jean only has the endorsement of two MLAs so far. Sawhney has only one endorsement, but the fact that it is from Pitt is noteworthy because the two have not always seen eye to eye on COVID-19 policy. The Pitt endorsement should open doors for Sawhney in rural Alberta. This will be critical for her campaign as she may not be well known outside of Calgary.

Smith does not have any endorsements so far. Given her campaign’s approach of being anti-establishment and being a voice for change, this may well play to her advantage. Loewen, Aheer, and Rock do not have any noteworthy endorsements so far.

Policy

Much of the early policy focus has been on ‘Alberta first’ issues that are the meat and potatoes of conservative thinking in Alberta. Danielle Smith can take at least partial credit for this as she came out of the gate with strong anti-Ottawa messaging that got a lot of media attention. Smith promised to make her first piece of legislation the Alberta Sovereignty Act, which would “grant the Alberta Legislature absolute discretion to refuse to enforce any piece of federal legislation or judicial decision that intrudes on Alberta’s provincial rights, or that unfairly attack the interests of Alberta’s People.” Smith also promised to move forward with a provincial police force, tax collection, and a provincial pension plan while also promising never to put any restrictions on Albertans during a future pandemic.

The Smith campaign’s aggressive approach to promoting ‘Alberta first’ policies certainly seem to have taken some oxygen from other campaigns while putting her in the driver’s seat. Although controversial, these policies are popular with many UCP members who will determine the next premier. So popular, in fact, that the ‘Free Alberta Strategy’ organized a two-hour virtual debate solely to focus on provincial sovereignty issues, and all candidates agreed to participate (except for Bill Rock, who was not invited).

As we head into the second month of the campaign, more focus can perhaps be expected on items that have been shown to be top concerns for Albertans such as affordability, jobs and economy, health care and education. On affordability, Jean has come out with the most specific and expensive campaign promise so far - pledging to use some of the anticipated surplus to help Albertans with high utility bills which he expects would cost around $600m and would “save the average Alberta family, family farms, and seniors up to $500 per year on their power and distribution costs.” Meanwhile, Rebecca Schulz has said she would consider spending more on education and health care if she is elected as leader and premier.

To avoid giving the NDP any ammunition in the general election, it was anticipated that the candidates would generally try to steer clear of discussing any hot button social issues. The decision of the US Supreme Court on Roe v Wade has, however, thrust abortion into the spotlight at an inopportune time. Aheer has been the only candidate to condemn the decision with the other candidates either abstaining from commenting or simply stating that the issue is a federal one with no provincial changes planned.

Polling

Polling should be taken with a considerable grain of salt because it is usually based on a small sample size and may not truly reflect who will vote. Having said that, polling can reflect the general ‘brand awareness’ which is important early in the race to raise funds and to gain endorsements.

Angus Reid - a generally respected polling firm - completed a poll recently that looked at how both UCP supporters and non-UCP supporters receive the current candidates so far. Among likely UCP supporters, the top candidates are Smith (34%), Jean (33%) and Toews (25%) while Smith is preferred by 24% of the general voting population, Jean is at 23% and Toews at 13%.

A poll by Ottawa-based pollster David Murray found similar results; however, the most highly rated candidates was found to be Michelle Rempel-Garner with 44% of likely UCP voters having positive views. Rempel-Garner has since announced she will not be running for the top job, which leaves Smith and Jean in pole position with Toews closing in.

What’s Next

The final list of candidates will be clear by July 20th, which is the deadline for candidates to pay the entry fee set by the UCP. The cut-off for membership sales is August 12. Kaycee Madu’s name has been tied to rumours of a late-entry into the race. Meanwhile the UCP should be releasing information about the official debates that all candidates are required to attend in the coming weeks.