A Short Session with Big Implications – The Winter Sitting Begins
At 3:00PM today, Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani will enter the Legislative Assembly and deliver the first Speech from the Throne of Alberta’s new premier, Danielle Smith. For the leader of the UCP, this is a moment that is one decade in the making. Many pundits and politicos expected a Smith-led Wildrose Party would be the one to finally topple the Progressive Conservative reign back in 2012.
Alas, it was not meant to be.
Ten years later, the political comeback story is complete – and another election is already on the horizon. If Premier Smith wishes to not be a flash in the pan leader, it is critical that she begin her first session in Room 307 as strongly as possible and carry whatever momentum she is able to garner throughout the spring before the writ is dropped.
As the Speech from the Throne is only a short time away, this article will not focus on a document that we have yet to read. Instead, we will spend some time looking at what you and your organization can expect this provincial government to pursue this Christmas sitting season and what you need to be aware of.
A Brief but Critical Sitting
We have alluded to this many times, but it bears repeating – this will not be a long sitting for Alberta’s MLAs. At this time, the Legislature is scheduled to sit from November 29th until December 15th. Interestingly, this marks a bit of a departure from the original plan which was to sit until December 22nd.
This upcoming sitting is going to be brief by design. While the holiday season indeed plays a role, there is strategic reason to limit time in the Legislature. By having a short sitting period, you are limiting the amount of time you are on the record debating controversial policies leading up to an election. There is no question the contents of this sitting will be polarizing, but the average person is not hyper-engaged politically. During session, people will no doubt see the news and plenty of debate on social media; however, this will largely come to an end with Christmas right around the corner and what we expect to be another decent-sized break in the early new year.
So what exactly will be debated this session? Here is what we expect to see this upcoming month based on the intelligence available.
The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act
New name – same bill.
Yes, the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act is expected to be tabled as Bill 1 to start the 4th session of the 30th Legislature. Albertans have been curious about what exactly will be included in Premier Smith’s inaugural piece of legislation on which she campaigned during the UCP leadership race. Later today, we should finally get to see the contents of the polarizing legislation.
We’ve heard plenty of speculation about what exactly it is this bill will do. At one point, it sounded like the bill could potentially breach the threshold of constitutionality as it was suggested the bill would allow the provincial government to ignore federal legislation and Supreme Court of Canada decisions that are deemed to be unfavourable to Alberta’s interests.
Later, that position was walked back as it was suggested that the bill would not be unconstitutional. Rather, the bill would simply be a reaffirmation of the constitutionally stipulated areas of provincial jurisdiction. Since, the discussion has been ‘which version of the bill will we see?’
Our best guess – this bill will fall somewhere between being unconstitutional and bearing no legislative teeth.
The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act will likely not go so far as to effectively create a new notwithstanding clause, but it is entirely possible that the legislation could operate as a director of enforcement. By that, we mean using the Legislative Assembly to determine what legislation and court decisions are not a provincial priority to enforce.
For example, the province could hypothetically use the Act to direct police in Alberta to not participate in the federal government’s gun buy-back program under such a model. Now, there is nothing stopping the federal government from utilizing the RCMP to roll out the program. There is also a high likelihood that such a system would create a very litigious climate. However, one thing the legislation will not do is pave the way to an independence movement as many have suggested.
Of course, this is still an educated guess at the time of writing that the bill is a confidential and privileged document until it is read for a first time. This assessment is based on months of rhetoric and discourse that have encapsulated the legislation before it was ever made public.
Until the bill is released and given royal assent, it is difficult to accurately assess the potential consequences of passing such legislation. The federal government’s response will be something to pay close attention to as the degree of attention they pay the bill will be indicative of the potential threat it possesses to them. If the bill is powerless, there will likely be little discussion in Ottawa. If it could spark legal battles, expect the rhetoric to be picked up.
Amendments to Human Rights
At this time, we only expect to see two or three pieces of legislation tabled before Santa Claus comes to town. Based on what we have been hearing, we originally had expected one of those bills to be to amend the Alberta Human Rights Act. Premier Smith has made it clear that she wishes to amend the Act to prohibit discrimination for Albertans based on their vaccination status. This was a clear promise Premier Smith had made during the leadership race.
This week, we have learned that Premier Smith will, in fact, not be tabling such amendment legislation this winter.
The Inflation Relief Act
Another government bill we expect to see tabled is legislation to formalize the fiscal support program announced last week by the UCP. The $2.8 billion program will be rolled out over the next three years, including $600 for each senior and child in households earning less than $180,000 annually. It is also expected to include the re-indexation of AISH and the seniors’ benefit along with fuel tax relief and $200 electricity rebates.
The discourse on this plan has been mixed. Many are pleased that the government is rolling out targeted support to those who need it given the rising cost of living – others are critical that childless individuals making minimum wage will not be entitled to receive the $600 benefit while families earning $179,999 will receive financial support. Opposition leader Rachel Notley said that the plan “was very quickly rolled out, almost on the back of a napkin, by a pretty green premier.”
The Opposition’s Response
Yesterday morning, opposition house leader Christina Gray spoke to the media about the NDP’s plans for the upcoming session. Her remarks highlighted a number of private members bills the party intends to table. Among the ideas listed were the protection of the health care system and provincial investments, as well as cost of living related legislation.
With the UCP holding a strong majority in the Legislature, it is not expected that any of the private members bills will be passed – especially given the short three-week sitting schedule. From an opposition perspective, their focus would be best served by providing alternatives to government legislation and to push their messaging out to the public while they are engaged with political news.
Going Forward
Ultimately, the next three weeks will be a key period for Premier Smith to set up her party for a strong homestretch leading up to Election 2023. Should the ASWAUC Act pass, expect the UCP to find opportunities to use the legislation before the writ is dropped. Truthfully, this writer would be surprised if they have not already identified one or more areas that they want to target. There has been some speculation that Budget 2023 may be pushed back to March or April, but recent comments from Minister Travis Toews have put that speculation into doubt.
There will be lots you and your organization will need to pay attention to in the Alberta Legislature to ensure you stay ahead of the curve. Stay tuned to The NEWS by Alberta Counsel in the coming months to stay up to date and to set yourself up for government relations success in the new year.
