Previewing the Lethbridge-West By-Election
On July 1, the resignation of the now former MLA Shannon Phillips became effective. For 3,346 days, she represented the constituency of Lethbridge-West both in government and opposition which included cabinet service as the Minister responsible for the Status of Women as well as Environment and Parks.
Now that the seat has officially become vacant, the six-month by-election call timeline has been triggered. For clarity, the by-election need not be completed within the six months; rather, the by-election need only be called within six months from the date the seat became vacant. Of course, the by-election can be called at any point during the six-month period – something that could very easily occur.
At this stage, we do not have any indication of when the by-election will be called. Additionally, we do not know who the candidates on the ballot will be. Once the race is officially underway, we will ensure that you are given all of the up-to-date information you need to stay in the know. For the purposes of this article, we intend to focus more on the importance of Lethbridge-West as an open seat and explore what sort of political battle is on the horizon.
History
The Lethbridge-West riding was established in the 1971 boundary redistribution. In the 1971 Alberta general election, Social Credit candidate Richard Gruenwald won the new seat with nearly 55% of the popular vote. In 1975, the riding flipped to the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), with candidate John Gogo winning nearly 60% of the popular vote. Gogo would go on to win re-election until he retired in 1993. The PCs held the Lethbridge-West seat until 2015, when the Alberta NDP candidate, Shannon Phillips, was elected with just over 59% of the popular vote.
The 2012 general election results were a watershed moment. They reflected a significant increase in support for the Party, with Phillips securing nearly 30% of the popular vote – an increase of almost 20%. This is compared to the elected PC candidate, Greg Weadick, who won with nearly 37% of the popular vote.
It is of interest to note that the Liberal Party saw a nearly 30% drop in support in the 2012 election. This marked the first time since 1993 that the Liberal candidate wasn’t within 10% of the popular vote of the PC candidate.
Demographics
The Lethbridge-West riding, with its unique demographic profile, is home to 50,790 people according to 2021 Stats Canada data. A significant 76.9% of the population is over 18, and the chart below illustrates that approximately 64% of the population is under the age of 45, reflecting the youth of the riding. The average in Lethbridge-West is 37.5, compared to 43.1 in Lethbridge’s counterpart, Lethbridge-East.
Lethbridge-West is also highly educated, with nearly 67% of those between the ages of 25 and 64 holding a postsecondary certificate, diploma, or degree. When compared to Lethbridge-East, the most notable difference is the percentage of the population that holds a bachelor’s degree or higher, as shown below.
Finally, regarding employment income, there is also a notable difference between Lethbridge-West and Lethbridge-East, especially when looking at total income numbers and the gender divide. Lethbridge-West reflects a median employment income in 2020 for full-year full-time workers of $66,000 (with men boasting a median income of $71,500 and women coming in at $59,200), with Lethbridge-East reporting $58,400. For median total income for the total population 15 years and over with income, Lethbridge-East reports a median total income for men of $47,600 and $36,800 for women. In Lethbridge-West, these numbers increase to $49,600 for men and remain at $36,800 for women.
What’s at Stake
With both the UCP and NDP having been busy at the Calgary Stampede for the last two weeks, lips have been tight about who may be given the nomination nod for each of the parties. Early speculation has suggested past candidates in the city could be options once again.
Cheryl Seaborn ran in the 2023 provincial election after replacing Torry Tanner who resigned from the race. She is the former president of the UCP’s constituency association for the riding. However, her candidacy seems less likely than past Lethbridge-East NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro. He spent two terms on Lethbridge city council and lost a narrow contest to Minister Nathan Neudorf (a difference of 636 votes).
Although the seat will not impact who forms government, Lethbridge is an important city for both parties. Since 2012, the race in Lethbridge-West has been close (save for 2015 when Shannon Phillips had 7,000 more votes than her nearest competitor. The seat nearly flipped back to the UCP in 2019 when their candidate fell 226 votes shy of Phillips.
The seat has remained orange in large part to the political strength of Shannon Phillips. Finding her replacement for the NDP will be no easy task. With that said, the UCP will have identified this as a significant opportunity to turn the entirety of Lethbridge blue sometime in the near future.
This will also be the first political test in the Naheed Nenshi era for the UCP. The most recent polling at the time of writing showed that the governing party enjoys a 14 per cent lead over the opposition immediately following Nenshi’s victory on June 22. With that said, this writer would suspect that this polling does not reflect the “honeymoon period” that would have been amplified over the course of the Stampede.
It will also be a chance for the Nenshi-led Alberta NDP to show what direction the party will go under his leadership. More importantly, it will be a solid test to see how his non-Edmonton/Calgary strategy holds up during a campaign. The party needs to see significant growth outside of the two largest cities if it hopes to have the best odds at forming government in 2027 – this is their chance to hold an important seat and build momentum for “rural” campaigning going forward.