What Comes Next for the New Democrats?

If you talk to anyone in Alberta NDP circles, 2023 was supposed to be ‘the year’.

For the years leading up to last month’s general election, the opposition put in the work they felt was needed in order to form government for the first time since the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose united the right. They were able to recruit a number of high-calibre candidates across the province, but especially in Calgary where they needed to make the most gains. They advanced a more moderate platform than they’ve run on in the past in an effort to earn historically PC votes. They led significant consultative efforts across the province to give more people a say on the plan they put forward to Albertans to vote on May 29th.

In the end, they fell short.

We won’t use this article to focus on the “why”. The party will go through their post-mortem process to figure out where they made mistakes or where they could have been stronger and use those findings to guide them in the future. One could point to their focus on Danielle Smith’s failings or their introduction of a corporate tax rate hike; however, the reasons for not winning an election are usually more complicated than such a simplistic hypothesis.

Instead, we will dive into the “what now” question the party needs to ask itself. Although they did not win the 2023 election, they earned the largest number of votes in their party’s history and elected the largest opposition caucus in the province’s history. One idea we will put forward is that this isn’t the moment for a “blow it up and start over” mentality. Rather, the party is more likely than not to use this as a moment to make some less-major adjustments to put itself in a position to succeed in 2027.

Shadow Cabinet

In the coming days or weeks, you should expect Rachel Notley to introduce who will be given critic roles going into the 31st Legislature. As is true with Cabinet, you can expect to see some shuffling throughout the term as the political climate changes, but the introduction of critics can say a lot about the priorities of the opposition.

For example, you should not expect the opposition critic roster to perfectly mirror the composition of Cabinet. By that, we mean it is unlikely that there will be one critic for each ministry. Rather, critic roles will likely be developed to focus on what the NDP views to be under-represented matters.

For instance, it would be unsurprising to see a housing critic for the NDP as there is not a named ministry with housing listed in the title.

You can also look at who is assigned to certain critic roles to get a better understanding of where Notley and the NDP hope to apply some pressure on UCP ministers this term. While the UCP did not place any rookie MLAs in Cabinet, it would be unsurprising to see newly-elected NDPers handed a critic portfolio.

Both Nagwan Al-Guneid and Samir Kayande could make a case for themselves to be named critic of Energy given their many years of experience working in both oil and gas as well as renewable energy industries. Court Ellingson may find himself as either the Finance critic or in an economic development portfolio. You may also see Dr. Luanne Metz assume the Health critic position for obvious reasons.

Also keep an eye on Brooks Arcand-Paul, Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, and Rhiannon Hoyle for possible critic roles.

This can also open up more senior opposition MLAs to take over roles that fit their wheelhouse or positions where they can apply constant pressure on the minister(s) they are responsible for shadowing. For that reason, expect to see Sarah Hoffman, Shannon Phillips, and Rakhi Pancholi in senior roles in the shadow cabinet.

The Leadership Question

For those on the NDP side of the Assembly, this is the most delicate topic on many people’s minds at this moment. Rachel Notley has been the leader of the New Democrats in Alberta since she took over the party from Brian Mason in October 2014 and is the only NDP premier in our province’s history. Her leadership has helped to elevate the party to levels of success it has never seen before and has set the bar for the NDP going forward.

But two consecutive election losses raises questions about the future.

Twice since the most recent election came to an end, Notley has indicated to party supports and the public that she intends to stay on as leader of the official opposition, but she will take some time to consider her future.

Given her significant contributions to both the party and the progressive movement in Alberta, it is expected that she will be afforded all the time she needs to make a decision about whether or not she will stay on as leader. She will not be rushed to make up her mind.

However, until such a decision has been made, speculation will naturally swirl about what the future holds for the NDP and who could possibly find themselves in the succession conversation should Notley decide that her time to step away has come.

Until then, she will remain as leader and carry out her duties as she always has.

The timing of such a decision is also of critical importance to the future of the party. It is unsurprising that Notley did not announce her resignation as leader on election night. Given the two-party system Alberta currently has along with the number of seats won, a leadership announcement would have been a significant blow to the NDP at the time. After all, there is something to be said about post-election stability and direction.

With that said, should Notley decide to hang up her leadership skates before the next election, waiting too long could also come with significant drawbacks. Notley is a known commodity in Alberta given her lengthy history in the Legislature – the next leader may not be. The next head of the party will need time to introduce themselves to the general public and build on their own vision for the NDP and the province; a task that takes some time to complete.

Not to mention that a leadership race in itself is a lengthy process.

There are no indications in the public or private channels of any timeline for a decision to be made by Notley, so we can only make an educated guess. We know that Danielle Smith will be the subject of a leadership review by UCP members as is required by their party’s constitution (a date has not been announced at this time). We would suspect that this review would be done sometime in the new year following the first session of the new Legislature this fall. For both Notley and the NDP, it could be beneficial to wait and see how the UCP leadership review plays out before finalizing a decision. If Smith is given the confidence of her party in resounding fashion, then it may make sense for Notley to step away at that time. However, if the UCP happens to be plunged into another leadership race of their own, then it could be an opportunity for one last kick at the can for Alberta’s longest-serving MLA to become Premier once again.