ELXN 44 - The Worst Kept Political Secret is Out
As you no doubt heard over the weekend, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and his family visited Rideau Hall on Sunday. During the visit, Governor General Mary Simon granted his request to dissolve Parliament and call an election. Canadians will head to the polls on September 20th. Rumours of an early election have swirled around for many months now, finally putting an end to the constant speculation that the government would fall due to a vote of non-confidence.
While Alberta Counsel will, of course, be paying close attention to this election season, it is too early in the campaign to sum up key stories or review platform ideas. Keeping that in mind, here are some of the key things we will be observing over the coming month.
Leaders’ Debate
On the same day the election was called, the public became privy to when the debates will be held for Canadians to view. The French language debate will be hosted on Wednesday, September 8th; the English language debate will be held on Thursday, September 9th. Both will be held from 6PM to 8PM Mountain Time on CBC News, Global News, APTN News, and CTV. While these debates are often filled with more political posturing than substantive policy debate, it will likely be the only chance for people to see all of the leaders in one room to discuss their key messages of the election. At this time, the leaders who are confirmed to be participating are Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole, Jagmeet Singh, Yves Blanchet, and Annamie Paul. That could change if the People’s Party of Canada can amass 4 per cent public support on polling 5 days after the election is called.
Pandemic Impact on Election
While we were all hoping the pandemic would be behind us by now, the impacts of COVID-19 will be a reality that candidates and voters alike will need to navigate during the campaign. Fortunately for Elections Canada, they have had an opportunity to observe provincial elections in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador for both positive examples to follow and negative examples to avoid.
At the polls in September, poll workers will be wearing personal protective equipment while voters will be subject to the health restrictions on masking put in place at the provincial and territorial level. Pencils will only be used once per person, or voters will have the ability to bring their own pen or pencil to the polling station. Additionally, Canadians can apply to vote by mail.
Will We See a Change in Government or Status Quo?
Perhaps the true worst kept secret in Canadian politics is that Alberta is nearly guaranteed to stay Conservative blue for yet another federal election. While NDP candidate Heather MacPherson will likely maintain the left’s hold on Edmonton-Strathcona, there is not much expected to change. Edmonton-Centre will be a close race as well with familiar names. Former Liberal Minister Randy Boissonnault will be running again against Conservative James Cumming with the later holding a slim 1-point lead over his main rival. Again, it should be restated that there is no expectation that the province will change political allegiances this election.
With that said, federal polling for the last year has flip flopped between a Liberal majority or minority government being the likely outcome of this election season. Two factors will be determinative of whether we see another minority mandate or not – the left flank and Quebec.
The NDP will likely not form the official opposition; however, they can still be a pain in the Liberal’s side when it comes to vote splitting. They currently sit at 19.8% (according to 338 Canada) which is a little more than half of the Liberal’s 35.4%. As the Conservatives are not expected to face any real opposition from Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada, they are not subject to the same problem. With that said, the Liberal’s seemed to put in place certain policy items into the latest budget in a clear attempt to sway NDP voters, so this may not be a significant factor. Quebec will likely be the battleground for determining if Trudeau can score a majority government. While the Liberals are right around the mark for a slim majority at the time of writing, Quebec seems to be leaning more towards supporting the Bloc Quebecois this time around (though the Liberals and Conservatives both seem to have support in different pockets of the province). A strong BQ showing could result in yet another minority.
