Top 5 Stories to Watch - Spring 2024

Tomorrow afternoon, MLAs from across the province will descend upon a snow-covered capital city to officially kick off the upcoming spring sitting. As was expected, this will be a continuation of the fall session; therefore, we will not see a Speech from the Throne on February 28th.

With that said, the province will release Budget 2024 on Thursday. This will mark the first fiscal plan since the provincial election was held last spring. With Premier Danielle Smith’s recent public address focused on the growth of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, we may see the first hints about what strategy the provincial government will use to accomplish this. A detailed savings plan is expected to be published sometime before year-end.

Here are some of the stories Albertans will be watching during the spring sitting – scheduled to run from February 28th to May 30th, 2024.

1.       Budget 2024

Last week, the province announced the first of many initiatives that can be expected to be included in the upcoming budget. Minister Rajan Sawhney announced that the government will invest in creating 3,200 new apprenticeship seats to support the growing demand for skilled workers. This will come at a cost of an additional $24 million per year for the next three years (if the budget is passed as introduced).

Budget 2024 already has a number of questions that need to be addressed. While Premier Smith confirmed during her provincial address that her government will once again be able to achieve a balanced budget, the government will need to “show more restraint than previously predicted” due to lower resource prices.

What we are watching: In the mid-year fiscal update, the province forecasted a $5.5 billion surplus to end the current fiscal year. This was expected to be followed by surpluses of $2.13 billion and $2.81 billion in the next two years with about $2 billion less resource revenues expected in each of those years. Tax revenue is expected to make up some of the difference, but not enough to cover the spread.

2.       NDP Leadership Race

And then there were four.

In addition to Kathleen Ganley, Rakhi Pancholi, and Sarah Hoffman, rookie MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse has officially entered the Alberta NDP leadership race. In an interview with Richochet, Calahoo Stonehouse indicated that she initially did not intend on running, but “hundreds of texts flowed in from elders from across the province encouraging her to put her name in the hat. Then she called her long-time friend, Wab Kinew, the newly elected premier and Anishinaabe leader of Manitoba’s NDP. He told her it was her time, and not to worry about how long she’s been serving.”

Prospective candidates will have until March 15th to apply to enter the race. Apart from the rumoured kicking of tires from the former mayor of Calgary, there aren’t any other major names expected to pursue the race (though there are always some surprises in any election). However, there has been some speculation that Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan may throw his hat in the ring.

What we are watching: How will the leadership candidates handle themselves in the Legislature during their respective campaigns. As a condition of their entry, sitting MLAs must resign any critic or house roles – something that naturally reduces how often they speak in the Assembly. The race will also be an incredible test of stamina as they will need to balance their MLA responsibilities with their campaign responsibilities.

They are in for a long spring.

3.       Post-Moratorium on Renewables

The provincial government’s seven-month pause on renewable projects is scheduled to expire this week on February 29th. The Alberta Utilities Commission provided the first part of their report to the province on January 31st (module A) with the balance (module B) due by March 29th.  The first module looked predominantly at land impact issues that were identified by the province:

·         Considerations on development of power plants on specific types or classes of agricultural or environmental land.

·         Considerations of the impact of power plant development on Alberta’s pristine viewscapes.

·         Considerations of implementing mandatory reclamation security requirements for power plants.

·         Considerations for development of power plants on lands held by the Crown in Right of Alberta.

Module B will explore the “impact the increasing growth of renewables has to both generation supply mix and electricity system reliability”.

What we are watching: Given the significance of the moratorium on the political landscape over the last number of months, it is not expected that the province will proceed with the status-quo going forward. What will be important is what (if any) legislation comes out of this and how regulations will be impacted. Will the new rules grow or limit renewable resource potential in the province? With there be a requirement to tie new renewable energy projects to new or existing non-renewable projects?

All of these are questions that we will have to wait for more details on, but will nonetheless generate significant debate for months and years to come.

4.       Alberta Pension Plan

Speaking of significant debate, the provincial government is inching closer to deciding whether or not it will table a referendum on the controversial proposal to with draw from the Canada Pension Plan. The public engagement panel’s report, featuring feedback and recommendations developed from  consultations, is due to the government in May.

In January, a poll conducted by Leger provided some insights about how Albertans feel about the proposed plan. On the question of “do you believe that the Alberta government should create a new Provincial Pension Plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan for Albertans”, a majority 52 per cent of respondents answered no, 22 per cent said yes, and 26 per cent remain unsure.

What we are watching: Ultimately, it will be up to the provincial government whether or not Albertans go to the polls to answer this question on a referendum. It is expected such a referendum would be held during the 2025 municipal election cycle.

5.       Drought and Wildfire Response

As recently as last week, it was estimated that there were 55 active fires across Alberta – in February. In fact, wildfire season has already been declared. On top of that, a dry 2023 and bleak forecasts for 2024 suggest it is highly probable that Alberta will experience significant drought (hence why it formed a water advisory committee for the first time in over two decades).

Snowpack and groundwater levels are already at concerning levels – same goes for major reservoirs.

Unfortunately, there is just no way of knowing how bad this upcoming summer will be until it happens – though everything above suggests it is going to be a highly challenging time for everyone.

What we are watching: At the end of the day, everyone in the province will be looking to the government for how it intends to combat what could be one of the worst summers on record for Alberta. The province will look to hire an additional 100 firefighters, but we are still waiting for wildfire and drought response plans to be tabled.

If water levels stay concerningly low, we could begin to see water usage advisories issued around the province. Calgary experienced this first hand last year, but more regions could be directed to limit water usage to conserve as much as possible.