Top 5 Stories to Watch This Fall

October 30th will mark the first sitting day since the provincial election this past spring. Rookie and veteran MLAs are currently scheduled to sit in the Legislature until December 7th with a sessional break occurring the week of November 13th. Of course, it is entirely possible that session could wrap up sooner depending on the amount of business to conduct.

As we embark on the journey that is the 31st Legislature in Alberta’s history, here are the top five stories (in no particular order) you should be watching over the coming months.

1.       Speech from the Throne

At the beginning of every new legislative session, the Lieutenant Governor (in place of King Charles III) kicks things off with a throne speech. Simply put, a throne speech is used by government as an opportunity to share their priorities with Albertans for the upcoming sessional period.

In the last term, Albertans were treated to four speeches.

But there is something special about the first throne speech for a new government (even if they were re-elected). It gives them an opportunity to share what they interpret their mandate to be for the next four years.

This session’s throne speech should be of particular interest to those pursuing government relations objectives given the difference in campaign styles between Jason Kenney and Danielle Smith. During the 2019 election, the Kenney campaign released a comprehensive platform that included itemization of legislative and regulatory priorities for the upcoming term. This made the Kenney-era throne speeches an exercise of legislative scheduling rather than sessional planning.

By this, we simply mean ‘what parts of the platform will be addressed this session’ rather than ‘what will be new this session’.

The Smith campaign looked quite different from Kenney’s. While the UCP obviously made a number of campaign promises during the 2023 election, the list of specific goals and objectives was much smaller than the previous government’s. Rather than provide an itemized list of 300+ objectives, the Smith campaign opted to focus more on governance themes rather than specific priorities.

For that reason, it is reasonable to expect that each throne speech for the upcoming term will include a number of surprises to those outside of government.

2.       Taxpayer Protection Amendment Act, 2023

During the provincial election, Danielle Smith released some high-level details about what is expected to be Bill 1 when session kicks off at the end of this month. The proposed legislation was announced in response to the NDP platform promise to increase the province’s corporate tax rate to 11 per cent.

The bill as described isn’t overly complex. In essence, the bill would require the provincial government to hold a referendum on any future proposals to increase personal or business tax rates in Alberta.

"This is how strongly we feel about creating a stable environment for business investment, that this would be our very first act of government.” – Premier Danielle Smith

There is not much to discuss about this bill until it is officially tabled, but it will be interesting to see what, if any, other clauses are included in the bill.

If this will indeed be Bill 1, you can expect to see this read a first time immediately following the throne speech.

3.       A Firey Pension Debate

This is already one of the most hotly anticipated issues to be discussed in the Legislature during the fall session. Recently, the province indicated that it will be moving forward with public consultations on the future of a potential provincial pension plan.

According to the report by LifeWorks, Alberta is entitled to $334 billion in asset transfers (or 53% of the total estimated Base CPP assets). The report also suggests that, with a contribution rate of 5.91% (compared to the 9.90% contribution rate for CPP), the province could receive equal or greater returns.

In response to the provincial government’s engagement survey on the proposed plan, the Alberta NDP have released their own pension survey as they argue the government’s survey is flawed.

“We are making sure that Albertans are heard in a very clear way in a way that doesn’t allow for any ambiguity … we’re asking Albertans if they support leaving the CPP and if yes, why — if no, why?” – Shannon Phillips, Critic for Finance, Insurance and Pensions)

The Alberta Government has already launched a public campaign to raise awareness about the idea of a provincial pension plan. The Engagement Panel will be led by former MLA Jim Dinning. Joining him will be Mary Ritchie and Moin Yahya. According to albertapensionplan.ca, the panel will host engagement sessions which will result in a report presented to government in May with feedback and recommendations.

All indications point to a possible referendum occurring in tandem with the 2025 municipal election cycle (though a referendum will not be confirmed until next spring at the earliest).

In May, a Leger poll found that only 21 per cent of respondents were in favour of a potential provincial pension plan.

4.       Rachel Notley’s Future

Of course, one item that is outstanding on Alberta’s political agenda is the future of the Alberta NDP’s leadership. Following the provincial election, the longtime leader of the New Democrats has frequently told media that she is in the midst of deciding what her future holds.

As recently as last week’s Alberta Municipalities Convention, Notley has reminded the province that her decision is not finalized.

“And while we did come up short of our ultimate goal, we recognize that Albertans did give us a critically important job to do as the largest Official Opposition Alberta has ever had in our province’s history. And as for me and my future as leader -well, my friends - I have been doing a lot of thinking and I’m here today to tell you that I’m still thinking about what’s next!”

Although we have no insider information about what she will ultimately decide, conventional wisdom tells us that it is unlikely that a decision will be made during the upcoming fall session (though it cannot be completely ruled out). Should a decision to step down as leader be made, the most likely time for such an announcement would be following Budget 2024 passing.

5.       The First Sovereignty Act Motion

Finally, it is very possible that we could see the very first use of the Alberta Sovereignty Act Within a United Canada Act motion tabled in the Legislature before the end of the fall session. Last week, Premier Smith told media that “we're preparing a Sovereignty Act motion, and I'm hoping we don't have to use it. That's why we're at the table having these negotiations” in response to the proposed Clean Energy Regulations (CER) by the federal government.

As a refresher, the Act effectively says that, if a motion is passed in the Legislature, that it can direct provincial agencies to ignore laws and regulations that the province deems to be jurisdictional intrusion.

The province has already launched the TellTheFeds.ca campaign that includes marketing efforts across the country in an effort outline provincial concerns and to mobilize the public to tell their MPs they do not support the CER as written. One of the biggest sticking points for Alberta is the CER’s goal of achieving net-zero electricity by 2035 rather than 2050.