A Leading Review of Leadership Reviews in Alberta
In the last twenty years of provincial politics in Alberta, there has only been two premiers who have completed at least one full term as leader – Ralph Klein and Rachel Notley. In fact, we have seen a roster of five different occupants of the Premier’s Office over the last ten years. With just over a year to go until the fixed election date of May 29th, 2023, Jason Kenney’s leadership review poses some threat to add another name to the list of premiers with an early exit.
Of course, the results of the UCP leadership review shan’t be availed to the public until at least May 18th, meaning there is still some time until we know what the future will hold for our province.
Since the leadership review really got underway, there has been quite a bit of discussion about the threshold of approval for Premier Kenney to remain at the helm. He has held the stance that the party’s constitutionally required simple majority is a sufficient mandate. Others argue that a confidence inspired mandate ought to require a more significant chunk of member support.
Alberta’s most recent leadership reviews have all been spurred on by a variety of factors which creates some dissimilarity from the contemporary example of today. While past reviews cannot necessarily dictate the likelihood of any particular outcome later this month, it is worthwhile to look at our history and apply the lessons of yesterday to today.
Ralph Klein – 2006
By the time King Ralph’s final review kicked off, he had been the occupant of the Premier’s Office for nearly fourteen years. Now, he had passed prior reviews with flying colours during his tenure (approval in the 90 per cent range were not uncommon) and only held majority governments, but 2006 was different.
Before the provincial election in 2004, then-Premier Klein had announced to Albertans that he would not seek re-election following his next term. Going into the 2004 general election, Klein had announced the debt was “paid in full” and would send $400 “Ralph Bucks” to every resident of the province in 2006. Life was good in the wild rose province.
While the economy was booming and there was no end in sight (at the time) to the Progressive Conservative reign in the province, there was some internal division arising in the party – and the subject was the premier. In March of 2006, Klein announced that he would officially resign on Halloween of 2007 following two years of internal pressure to announce a resignation date.
For the Progressive Conservative membership, the March 31 leadership review vote was a platform to send a message to Klein. Either they supported his plan to stay in the Premier’s Office until late-2007, or they didn’t. Although the Premier could stay on as leader with a simple majority, he would publicly state that he wanted a clear majority of 75 per cent to renew his mandate.
He hit 55 per cent – the lowest of his career. Days later, he announced he would resign early. His last day in office would be January 15, 2007.
It was not just his timeline for departure that played against him, however. Before the review vote, Premier Klein had told his Caucus that any member of Cabinet who wished to run for leader of the Progressive Conservatives would be required to resign as minister by the summer of 2006. Then-Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation Lyle Oberg made a comment at a constituency association meeting telling membership to vote with their conscience after saying he would not be voting in favour of Klein’s leadership. He would be reinstated in June 2006 despite comments where he said “if I were the premier, I wouldn’t want me as a backbencher. I know where the skeletons are.”
Ed Stelmach – 2009
Of course, you will remember that Premier “Steady Eddy” would eventually be named Premier Klein’s successor following his resignation. After the loss of 12 Progressive Conservative seats in the prior election, Stelmach was able to return the party to its former electoral glory by winning 72 seats in 2008 – a number no successive government has been able to eclipse.
Premier Stelmach’s review came under much different circumstances than Klein’s. In this instance, Stelmach was facing seemingly growing unpopularity for changes to oil and gas royalties, the growing risk of a right-flank in the upstart Wildrose Alliance, and a botched rollout of the H1N1 vaccine.
Although the Progressive Conservatives had just won a landslide election by any measure, there were internal questions being raised about whether or not Stelmach was still the guy for the job. During the review, former political leaders chimed in on the review. One was Premier Stelmach’s predecessor, Ralph Klein, who suggested that Stelmach set the threshold of a clear mandate for continued leadership at 70 per cent.
When all was said and done, Stelmach earned 77 per cent (922 votes for, 269 votes against).
However, that did not result in the incumbent from leading the Progressive Conservatives into another general election. The aforementioned controversies along with other economic concerns of members such as withdrawing from the Heritage Savings Trust Fund and running a deficit budget rather than one of austerity were enough to keep the pressure on Stelmach.
Alison Redford – 2013
In what was the last leadership review of a sitting premier in Alberta prior to the ongoing process under the UCP, we saw perhaps the most turbulent timeline of events of the previously mentioned reviews. Premier Redford led the Progressive Conservatives to their final election win in a surprising fashion over the Danielle Smith Wildrose, earning a 61-seat majority in 2012.
Going into the vote, she was facing plenty of backlash from a number of communities. She campaigned on a promise: "A new PC government will deliver a balanced budget by 2013 with no new taxes and no service cuts." What followed was a long list of actions to quickly change course for the Progressive Conservatives. Among them include massive cuts to post-secondary education, cuts to school districts, closure of the Michener Centre (a plan that was later reversed under Premier Jim Prentice) and cutting dollars to senior pharmacare which resulted in a group of seniors occupying the health minister’s constituency office.
Redford would go onto win her review with an identical margin of victory to Stelmach – 77 per cent support. At the time, Progressive Conservative MLAs knew the significance of this number, but reassured Albertans that the infighting was over for real this time.
In this instance, it was not the drama that led up to the review that was the deciding factor that sealed her fate – it was the fallout. We won’t have time to discuss the post-resignation controversies of government jets and the origins of the Sky Palace (though many likely remember all too well).
The final months of Redford’s tenure in the Premier’s Office flew by amid a hurricane of controversy and elitist practice in the eyes of members and Albertans at large. Less than a month following her review, news was revealed that the Premier spent $45,000 of taxpayer money to attend Nelson Mandela’s funeral in South Africa. It would not be until March 2014 that Redford would admit fault and pay back the flight costs of the trip. It took less than two weeks for significant internal and external pressures to force her to repay the entire bill to Albertans.
Two Progressive Conservative MLAs (Len Webber and Donna Kennedy-Glans) opted to leave the party altogether due to numerous controversies and Redford’s alleged behind-the-scenes behaviours. Additional MLAs publicly pondered the possibility of quitting the party over Redford. After a constituency association called for Redford’s resignation, she was presented with a “work plan” by the Progressive Conservative board. This prompted threats of moving non-confidence motions and additional MLAs discussing walking out of Caucus to sit as independents.
She would resign four days later.
Jason Kenney – 2022
We will know our current premier’s fate on or about May 18th. Although two pages in woefully insufficient to cover three important events in Alberta history, it does provide valuable context for today’s events. While there are absolutely some similarities that we can see for Premier Kenney, current events are just far too different to draw perfect parallels to – even when it comes to the possible outcome.
An early election remains a possibility.