A Horizon of Complexity and Uncertainty – The Year Ahead for Alberta

As the sun has set on the year that was, 2022 is destined to be twelve months of critical importance for the Members of the Legislative Assembly here in Alberta. Both the United Conservatives and New Democrats will be using the new year to be more aggressive in positioning themselves for success in the next general election. But there is still plenty of runway between now and May 29, 2023.

While members of all political stripes will be eager to chase success in 2022, no one person has more political capital on the line than Premier Jason Kenney. 

The Future of the UCP

There are two events that will occur prior to the summer break which have the potential to change the course of the governing party’s future forever. In the twilight of 2021, Brian Jean won the UCP nomination in the upcoming by-election for Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche, defeating his opponent Joshua Gogo.

It is not often that a by-election has the potential to completely alter the political climate, but not every by-election has a leadership hopeful running to oust the current commander. The former leader of the Wildrose and candidate in the party’s inaugural leadership race has made no bones about why he wants to return to Alberta politics – to take over the UCP and lead it in the 2023 provincial election.

"He (Jason Kenney) needs to leave in order for the UCP to be competitive in the next election. I am running on that mandate."

For him to be successful in this effort, Jean will need to have favourable outcomes in four key events – nomination, by-election, leadership review, and a leadership convention (if the situation ever escalated to that stage). In this respect, Jean is already ahead of his rival on the scoreboard.

Step two for Jean is to win the by-election and return to the Legislature as a UCP MLA. Elections Alberta indicates that the provincial government must issue an Order in Council by February 15th which will officially trigger the countdown to voting day for the constituency’s residents. An election must be held 28 days after the Order in Council is issued, meaning we are likely to see ballots open in mid-March.

Jean will square off against NDP candidate Ariana Mancini for the right to hold the seat which was vacated by former MLA Laila Goodridge who now sits as an MP in Ottawa. Mancini previously ran against Jean in the former Fort McMurray-Conklin riding in 2015. Although it is anticipated that the NDP will put significant resources behind this race, it is hard to overlook the history and support Jean has in the region. The odds are heavily in Jean’s favour to return to the Legislature and secure his second win “against” the Premier.

Fortunately for Premier Kenney, he only requires a positive outcome to happen in one of these events. While the odds may be stacked in Jean’s favour in the nomination and bi-election races, Premier Kenney has been set up for success at the April 9th leadership review in Red Deer. We will save this subject for a more comprehensive analysis following the by-election results in March.

Possible Legal Challenge Over Bill 32

Although the Restoring Balance in Alberta’s Workplaces Act received royal assent in July 2020, this piece of legislation could be the subject of further contention as the bill approaches its second birthday. Back in August, MLAs Drew Barnes and Todd Loewen criticized their former party for allowing critical sections of the legislation to remain in limbo. Specifically, they were referring to the section that forces union workers to opt-in to their dues contributing to political activity.

At that time, Labour and Immigration indicated that it would follow through with ensuring the bill went into full force and effect, but no timeline was given by government. Also outstanding is the requirement for unions to provide financial statements to their membership.

Multiple major union leaders in Alberta have indicated that they have no intention of adhering to those rules once they are in force and effect, which is exactly why this is a story to watch in 2021. For example, Unifor President Jerry Dias is quoted as saying “Jason Kenney will not have an impact on the activities of Unifor. Zero. As a matter of fact, the more foolish legislation he passes, the more eager I am to defy it.”

While a legal challenge is never guaranteed, public statements indicate that multiple significant stakeholders do not intend to adhere to a new law. For this reason alone, it wouldn’t be entirely unreasonable to anticipate some sort of legal event could take place. Of course, this is also dependent on when the bill comes into full force and effect, so stay tuned to this story for developments.  

Sparring over the Future of Alberta Policing

The Fair Deal Panel recommended that the province begin exploring the possibility of severing its policing agreement with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) while instead developing a made-in-Alberta alternative. Late in 2021, PricewaterhouseCooper Canada released the findings of their feasibility study, ultimately finding that there was some potential benefit to establishing an Alberta police force and the matter was worthy of additional study. 

When the report was released, Premier Kenney was pleased with the findings, saying “this independent report makes a compelling case for creating a police service that’s designed by Albertans, for Albertans. Alberta’s government is committed to the safety and security of all Albertans, no matter where they live.” The province has committed to further engagement in 2022, including meeting with stakeholders and releasing a public survey for more general input.

However, the Government of Alberta is not the only organization mobilizing on the provincial policing issue.

The National Police Federation (NPF) is starting off the new year with a community engagement tour of the province to engage with the public on the future of policing in Alberta. The NPF is the RCMP’s bargaining agent for the members and reservists of the RCMP and has been actively campaigning against the province’s interest in establishing its own police force.

This policy research has been among the most divisive for the United Conservatives during their first term in government. The UCP argues that such a move would give the province more autonomy in determining how best to approach policing issues in Alberta such as rural crime. They have also made arguments that there could be financial benefits to an in-house police force. Those who fall on the other side of the coin are quick to point out that evicting the RCMP would also lead to the end of the federal police funding which is valued at about 30 per cent of annual costs. Former Justice and Solicitor General Press Secretary Blaise Boehmer took to social media after leaving government in December to speak to the subject.

“Here are the facts: Taxpayers are on the hook for $366M to transition, and an annual loss of $170M from the Feds. And even these projections are probably lower than the actual cost. First Nations don’t want it, and neither do Albertans. A bizarre obsession for this govt (sic).”

To date, it has been a rather interesting battle to watch unfold. For example, back in October, the NPF applied to trademark numerous naming options that the province may have considered for its hypothetical new police force as a potential roadblock for the government. It is clear that we are going to be in for a long public campaign on both sides.