Canada’s Next Prime Minister - Can Mark Carney Change the Political Landscape in Alberta?

For the first time in Canada’s history, we will have a Prime Minister that calls Edmonton home.

As you have already heard, Mark Carney has successfully won the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada and will become the 24th Prime Minister in our country’s history when he is officially sworn in.

There is speculation at the time of writing that event will happen on Friday, meaning that Justin Trudeau’s official resignation is expected to happen very soon.

The political winds have shifted in this country. Even as recently as a few months ago, the thought of any result other than a Conservative majority would have been viewed as a farcical prediction at best. Now, the Liberals have appeared to ride a wave of momentum that began earlier this year which makes the outcome less certain.

Who is Mark Carney?

Mark Carney is no stranger to Albertans. Born in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, and raised in Edmonton, Carney has deep roots in Western Canada. He studied at Harvard and Oxford before embarking on a successful career in global finance, including his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, Carney has been a prominent advocate for climate-conscious finance, a stance that has made him both a respected and controversial figure in Alberta’s political landscape. Of course, he also served as the Governor of the Bank of England.

His career trajectory has given him credibility on Bay Street and in international economic circles. However, it remains to be seen whether his technocratic background and policy focus will resonate with everyday Albertans, particularly those in the energy industry who have felt sidelined by the Trudeau government’s policies.

A Path to Rebuilding Liberal Support in Alberta?

The Liberal Party has long struggled to gain electoral traction in Alberta. In the 2021 federal election, the Liberals won just two of the province’s 34 seats. While Trudeau’s initial 2015 victory included some inroads in Calgary and Edmonton, Liberal support has eroded significantly since then.

Carney’s leadership could present an opportunity to change that dynamic—if he can craft a message that appeals to Albertans who feel neglected by federal policies. His economic credentials could help counter Conservative narratives and push back against President Donald Trump’s economic attacks, while his Western roots could offer a more relatable figure than Trudeau in Alberta.

Still, Carney faces an uphill battle. The United Conservative Party remains dominant at the provincial level, and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives continue to lead in Alberta polling by significant margins. For Carney to make gains in the Wild Rose province, he will need to demonstrate that his policies will support the growth of our province’s energy industry, while also offering solutions to affordability concerns that resonate across party lines.

With all of that said, the Liberal’s path to another term once is paved out east.

Election Timing?

Earlier this year, the federal NDP promised to bring down the existing minority government at the first opportunity following prorogation later this month. Now, we would put the betting odds on the Prime Minister-designate may walk over to Rideau Hall and ask Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament for a spring election himself.

Elections are rarely defined by any one thing, but two major factors that often make a considerable difference are timing and momentum.

Timing – Canada finds itself in the middle of a trade war with President Donlad Trump that have included more that mere musings about annexation of the great white north. Canadians from coast to coast to coast are growing increasingly patriotic and slogans that suggest the country is broken are less well received now than they were even six months ago.

Momentum – For much of 2025, the Conservatives have been experiencing a rapid decline in the polls. On the other hand, the Liberals seem to be experiencing a resurgence since the Liberal leadership race began with much of the centre-left vote consolidating with the Grits.

As it stands, it is too difficult to say how the federal election may turn out if it indeed is called later this month. While campaigns only last a little over a month federally, each day brings with it potential for major momentum swings as the electoral landscape changes. All this writer feels comfortable saying is that this election is not a foregone conclusion and should not be treated as a coronation for any party.