What to Make of the 2024 UCP AGM

The annual general meeting of the United Conservative Party is finally in the rearview mirror of politicos, pundits, and Albertans. Capping off an eventful first sitting week for the fall was the leadership review of party leader Danielle Smith. Earning a remarkable 91.5 per cent vote of confidence from those who voted in the review is no small feat, and one that send a very clear message of unity and confidence in the direction the Premier is leading the province.

In this week’s feature article, we will break down what the leadership review numbers and review some of the key policy resolutions that passed at the UCP AGM in Red Deer.

The Leadership Review

Looking at reviews of conservative leaders of the past, one has to go back to the days of Ralph Klein to see an internal support number of 90 per cent. And (barring anything unforeseen), the 91.5 per cent result will also mark the first time a conservative premier has run for premier in consecutive elections since Klein himself.

Premiers Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford survived their leadership review result of 77 per cent but would eventually be pushed out before the next provincial election. Jason Kenney earned a majority on his review in 2022; however, ultimately decided that he would step down as leader after earning 51.4 per cent.

In her celebratory remarks, Premier Smith said gleefully that “I’m truly humbled by the overwhelming support of our party members and your confidence in my leadership. Our party is more united than it has ever been.”

Indeed, Premier Smith has earned a clear vote of confidence from the more than 4,600 leadership review voters in Red Deer. It is estimated that about 75 per cent of those registered for the UCP AGM event participated in the leadership review process. It is also believed that the 2024 UCP AGM was the largest provincial political party gathering in our province’s history. However, there are some questions about what that 91.5 per cent represents.

For the 2024 leadership review, the United Conservatives decided that the rules for the process would require members to cast in-person ballots at the party’s AGM. This required UCP members wishing to vote in the review to travel to Red Deer and to pay the registration fee for the AGM in order to participate.

In 2022, the Jason Kenney-led UCP provided more opportunity for members to participate in the review process which included both in-person and mail-in balloting (despite initially requiring in-person only balloting). Additionally, the 2022 leadership review held at the special general meeting had no registration fee for attendees.

As a result, it is evident in the chart below that the ease of participation measures implemented in 2022 generated a greater turnout and representation of the UCP membership than this past weekend’s review. A sevenfold increase in participation is significant.

While this analysis ultimately does not change the result of the UCP leadership review, this writer ponders just how reflective the 91.5 per cent result is of the general party membership – a question we cannot answer with the data available at the time of writing.  

Going forward, the biggest challenge Danielle Smith will face will be balancing the existing support of her party with the need to earn support from the general electorate come 2027. Will her party move closer to the centre come election season, or will the UCP continue on the path it has forged since the 2023 election?

Stay tuned.

Resolutions

At party AGMs and conventions, members are given an opportunity to vote on numerous governance and policy-related resolutions that were submitted by constituency associations. Resolutions that are passed do not necessarily become law. In essence, passing resolutions effectively means that the party adopts the position laid out as passed, but it is up to Cabinet to ultimately introduce the concept of the resolution into the Legislature.

In Red Deer, AGM attendees voted dozens of various policy resolutions with overwhelming support for most. Only two of the votes were required to go to a count on the floor.  The two that needed counts related to the income tax promise from the last election and opt-in sex education in schools. 

Of course, we do not have the time to get into each of the resolutions that were debated, so we will provide a more general review of the subject mater. Members debated on resolutions related to things such as the elimination of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs within the Alberta Public Service and crown corporations to the creation of a parental bill of rights.

Some proposals went as granular as recommending the Alberta Teachers Association membership be optional for the profession and ensuring “exclusively female spaces” are limited to “biological females”. They also included the elimination of retention bonuses for bureaucrats and to “require municipalities to hold a plebiscite vote for proposed land use changes that would significantly impact the entire municipality.”

Another notable policy resolution that passed related to carbon emissions. It called for the recognition of “the importance of CO2 to life and Alberta’s prosperity” through actions like abandoning net-zero targets, removing the designation of CO2 as a pollutant, and recognizing CO2 is a foundational nutrient for life.

So, What Now?

With a confidence vote of 91.5 per cent, the UCP membership has doubled down on Danielle Smith as their leader, and by extension, Premier of Alberta. If there are any questions remaining about internal party issues, those have been largely extinguished with the leadership review results.

Minister Jason Nixon provided comment on what happens now, saying “there are some groups that tried to work against the Premier – that’s their right, our party strongly believes in democracy – but it’s very clear where the membership stands, which is behind Premier Smith, behind her cabinet and her caucus.”

Of course, every confidence vote is different. Despite earning the same results, both Premiers Stelmach and Redford were pushed out for different reasons. However, 91.5 per cent confidence provides a clear indication about what sort of UCP members are motivated to be politically active. In a big tent party comprised of legacy Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members, it appears that it is the Wildrose that remains firmly in the driver’s seat.