Top 5 Stories to Watch This Fall
In exactly two months, Alberta’s MLAs will return to their seats in the Legislature for the commencement of the fall sitting schedule. The fall sittings will be brief – currently scheduled from October 28th to December 5th. When you factor in the Remembrance Day break, MLAs may only sit for 20 days before this calendar year comes to an end.
It is important to note that we are not expecting the fall sittings to begin with a Throne Speech. We will explain why later in this article, but there are reasons why this matters contextually. The most significant implication is that the Order Paper will carry on from where it left off in the spring. Any outstanding bills will not be “killed” and outstanding motions will remain in the queue.
At the time of writing, all government-tabled bills have been dealt with other than the yet-to-be-introduced Bill 23, Miscellaneous Corrections Statute Amendment Act, 2024.
With that context out of the way, let’s dive into the top five stories we will be watching this fall in the Alberta Legislature (in no particular order).
1. UCP Leadership Review
When United Conservative members congregate at Westerner Park in Red Deer from November 1st -2nd, they will have the opportunity to partake in the usual AGM activities (policy debate, board elections, etc). This year, members will also have the opportunity to have their say on their party leader, Premier Danielle Smith.
Members will be asked a simple question – “do you approve of the current leader?”, to which the response will either be a yes or no. According to party bylaws, the leader need only earn a simple majority in order to continue in their role with the confidence of membership. With that said, there is a longstanding unspoken rule that what a leader really needs is a clear majority.
What we are Watching: The definition of clear majority is always a matter of subjective interpretation. You may recall former Premiers Ralph Klein and Jason Kenney resigned their leadership positions after earning more than 50 per cent of the vote.
In an interview with Rick Bell earlier this month, Premier Smith was quoted as saying “I got 53 per cent the first time they had a chance to vote for me. Anything above 53 per cent I would look at as an improvement.”
The results of the leadership review, regardless of the percentage earned, have the potential to shape the next few years before the 2027 provincial election. While we won’t debate those repercussions here, this will be a top story for everyone in Alberta to observe.
2. NDP Provincial Council
Unlike the UCP, the Alberta NDP does not hold an AGM each year. Typically, they will hold a party convention every second year and call provincial council meetings when needed in between. With the next convention scheduled for sometime in 2025, provincial council delegates will meet in Calgary this fall.
What we are Watching: While this normally wouldn’t be major news we cover, it is worth noting that this will be the first provincial council meeting and major congregation of New Democrats since Naheed Nenshi was elected the party’s new leader. Even though convention is typically where the “groundbreaking” action occurs, this year’s council meeting will be the first glimpse into what direction the party will go under Nenshi’s leadership.
3. Changes to Health Care
Premier Danielle Smith has made health care reform a cornerstone issue of her leadership. Alberta is currently on the path towards reorganizing delivery – starting with the creation of Recovery Alberta this spring. It is expected that the new primary care, acute care, and continuing care provincial health agencies will be established this fall as part of that reorganization.
What we are Watching: This past weekend, reports surfaced about discussion points that were shared during a UCP members townhall in Drayton Valley about additional changes that could be coming to Alberta’s health care system. According to reports, Premier Smith suggested that the next phase of reorganization will include evaluating which hospital facilities can be handed over from Alberta Health Services to Covenant Health.
“But the other is the fear of having it taken away. That is going to be a very powerful competitive incentive for the managers to say, ‘Oh my goodness, if we continue to deliver terrible care in Drayton Valley, then somebody else is going to be chosen for the operator.’”
With this preliminary information being made public recently, there is little insight into which facilities (or how many) could be impacted by such a decision.
A statement from Alberta Health indicated that “both Alberta Health Services and Covenant Health will continue to play key roles in health care service delivery, providing acute care and continuing care services to Albertans. Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring key health partnerships continue, providing Albertans with the best care possible.”
4. Electoral Boundary Redraw Commission
Remember how we said we are not expecting a throne speech to commence the fall sittings? This is why.
According to Section 5(2) of the the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act, “Commissions are to be appointed during the first session of the Legislature following every 2nd general election after the appointment of the last Commission”. There is also a requirement that a Commission be struck no earlier than 8 years following the previous Commission and no later than 10 years after.
What we are Watching: The last commission was struck on October 31, 2016, meaning that this fall, all the conditions will have been met. As we are still in the first session of the Legislature following the last election, the Commission must be struck before a throne speech is made.
There is always potential for amendments to be made to the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act that can have an impact on timelines and outcomes, but all things being equal, we are interested to see how the commission will handle the redraw responsibilities. With the population growth of the province since 2016, adding new seats to the Legislature isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
5. Alberta Bill of Rights
Finally, we have reached what is expected to be one of the major legislative debates of the fall sittings. At another members-only townhall for the UCP, Premier Smith told attendees that an amended Alberta Bill of Rights will be tabled when MLAs return.
We will not spend a lot of time on this in our feature article, but we will go more in-depth in our issue-specific article later on in this issue of The NEWS.
What we are Watching: We do not know everything that is expected to be captured in the amendments. Reports from other media outlets have suggested that vaccine choice and property rights to be among the things included; however, there is a good chance that additional things will be attached.
The timing of legislation will be interesting, also. Will it be tabled prior to the UCP’s leadership review or will it come later in the fall sitting period?