The Tactics and Strategies of the Final Sitting Before Election 2023

Barring some sort of unforeseen circumstance we cannot identify today, Albertans are less than 100 days from the upcoming provincial election set for May 29th, 2023. At this time, the Legislative Assembly is only scheduled to sit for a total of 19 days between February 28th and March 30th. In this timeframe, the United Conservative government will table their final budget before election day and endure the rigors of the budget estimates process.

All seven of the government bills so far this session have passed (including one private bill) , leaving six private members’ public bills remaining to be debated before the writ period begins this spring. It is not expected that many significant pieces of legislation will be tabled. There has been word that one final red tape reduction bill will hit the Assembly floor, but any further bills would likely be quite minor in nature given the lack of time to provide significant legislation due consideration.

So, what can we expect from our MLAs in the coming weeks?

Of course, the highlight of the spring sitting will be the tabling of Budget 2023 on February 28th. While the government has said it does not intend on making this a “goodie” heavy budget, do not be surprised to see an election-friendly budget that is designed to promote as many good news stories as possible.

For those who are less familiar with the budget process, another important piece of the puzzle that will need to be completed is budget estimates. During this time, members of the various legislative committees will have an opportunity to hear more detailed breakdowns of the budget lines of each ministry as delivered by the minister and high-level staffers and department officials. Committee members are also given opportunity to question the minister and staff on the contents of the ministry’s budget and business plan.

As the details of the budget are confidential until the subsequent embargo is lifted, it is impossible to provide commentary on what could be in the budget without relying on speculation. For that reason, we want to provide some insight into how both the United Conservative Government and the New Democrat Opposition may approach the upcoming sitting period as each begins to position themselves for what is expected to be one of the most hotly contested elections of our lifetime.

Opposition Tactics

In our parliamentary system of governance, it is widely believed that opposition parties generally enjoy the political advantage when it comes to sitting in the Legislature. This is quite a contradictory statement given that opposition MLAs are unable to match government votes on legislation – especially in two-party systems such as ours. However, the advantage comes in the ability to dictate lines of questioning in debate as well as having a strong hand on guiding the political narrative in our province.

Typically – the longer a government sits in the Legislature, the less control they are able to have on political messaging. This can often be bad news for the governing side of the house, but not always. However, if you are in the opposition NDP Caucus, you are likely looking at a month of sittings and budget estimates as a pre-election gift from Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP.

In the Legislative Assembly, nineteen sitting days means nineteen oral question periods – and the opposition gets to control most of the questions (of course, backbench MLAs also get to ask questions of their cabinet). While this part of governance is largely political theatre as you can’t truly debate an issue thoroughly with only three questions, it is still important for everyone on both sides of the house to be on their game.

The last time MLAs sat in the Legislature was December 15th. Since then, a number of high-profile political stories have found their way into the news and social media. From the alleged contact between the Premier’s Office and Crown Prosecutors to the recent announcement regarding the Liability Management Incentive Program (formally known as RStar), there are a number of issues the opposition likely cannot wait to discuss on the record.

This will be an important time for the opposition to ensure their messaging is fresh in the minds of Albertans leading up to the election.

Additionally, the prospect of navigating the budget estimates process is one that is likely something the NDP is looking at favourably at this time. The opportunity to spend hours and hours grilling ministers and their staff provides a chance for opposition MLAs to critique the budget and pull on whatever political threads they might be able to find.

If the opposition is able to utilize this next month of opportunity wisely, they could put themselves in a strong position to build early campaign momentum in their bid to return to the governing side of the Assembly.

Government Tactics

While the opposition is likely looking forward to the next month of politics, remember we said that “this can often be bad news for the governing side of the house, but not always.”

You may recall how unfavourable session was to the Jason Kenney administration throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. While this was attributable to a multitude of factors, one was the inability to control the political narrative which resulted in messaging being weaponized against the government on multiple fronts.

The budget process will provide a great deal more control to the Danielle Smith administration – control that you can fully expect her party to utilize. Going into an election where economic policy is going to be a deciding factor in who wins, the UCP has an opportunity to put forward a low-controversy budget that provides items specifically targeted at the moderate swing voter that they hope to earn the support of on May 29th. Additionally, much of the political news cycle will be focused on budget items rather than what is happening in the Assembly – especially given how light this sitting is expected to be in terms of legislation.

For the government, their biggest challenge to overcome will be having to endure Question Period with minimal political damage incurred. They have lots of control over the budget, but they do not have control over what the opposition will decide to ask. It is rare to score any political points in Question Period, but you can absolutely lose them if you are not careful.

However, the UCP does still enjoy the advantage the budget presents. It provides an opportunity for the government to talk about good news stories and redirect attention from whatever controversial stories could pop up between now and March 30th.

Ultimately, the United Conservatives need to utilize the upcoming weeks as an opportunity to self-promote themselves by using the budget to reach the average voter’s sensibilities. If they can navigate their way through the political minefield before them, Election 2023 will remain well within their reach for the taking.

Who has the Advantage?

At the time of writing, we have no choice but to not award an advantage to either side. One month is an incredibly long time when it comes to session, so there is lots that could arise between now and March 30th than could have a significant impact on Alberta’s political road ahead.

If the United Conservatives can table a low-controversy, high-appeal budget and stay out of the negative news cycle as much as possible, it will be challenging for the NDP to make up the necessary ground before the writ period begins this spring.

However, if there are any major missteps from the government (or the budget is not as strong as they believe it to be), then the UCP could quickly find themselves behind the figurative 8-ball and have to fight from behind to remain in power for another four years.