Major Developments on the Alberta NDP Leadership Campaign Trail

Before we get to the news coming out of the Legislature halls, there have been major developments emanating from the Alberta NDP leadership race.

On March 15th, the deadline to become a candidate to become the next leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition confirmed six candidates would be on the ballot. Many questioned the impact former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi would have when his candidacy was confirmed.

On March 26th, we got the first glimpse into just how large of an impact he has had.

The other front-runner, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi, made an announcement early Tuesday morning that she would be officially exiting the leadership race.

She will be endorsing Naheed Nenshi.

“I put my name forward to be Leader of the Alberta NDP because I believe the story of Alberta is bigger, more hopeful and more optimistic than the story being told by the current government.” – Rakhi Pancholi, MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud

“I wholeheartedly believe the Alberta NDP is the most capable of reflecting this story on behalf of Albertans. I also know that, in order to succeed, we need to broaden the tent, invite in more Albertans, and offer Albertans something positive to vote for.”

She joined Nenshi at his first Edmonton rally of the campaign, which took place at the Polish Hall – the same venue that Rachel Notley held her last Edmonton rally during the 2023 provincial election.

In Pancholi’s statement about her decision to step away from the race, she cited the recently released membership sales numbers as a key factor.

“Recently, all Alberta NDP leadership candidates received an update on membership sales, marking the first such update since Naheed Nenshi entered the race.

Those numbers show that, in the span of a week, Naheed has more than doubled the size of the Alberta NDP’s membership. It’s an incredible accomplishment and invites so many Albertans to join our movement.”

We do not have access to exactly how many membership the party previously had or how many Nenshi’s camp sold as those are confidential and internal to the party, but that is a significant development that all other leadership camps no doubt have taken notice of.

Why is this significant? Unlike general elections, the number one predictor of success in a leadership race is the ability to sell new memberships – especially if you are running as an “outsider”. In theory, each membership sold by a campaign is someone that likely has the intention of voting for the person they purchased from.

Objectively speaking, Nenshi’s most clear path to victory in a preferential ballot race was to win on the first two ballots before run-off becomes a factor. If he truly doubled the membership sales in one week as Pancholi indicates, then it is evident that Nenshi has fewer obstacles to victory than many may have thought early on.

For Alberta NDP leadership hopefuls, the next major deadline is April 22 when the membership deadline takes effect. Candidates are also expected to make their next entrance fee payment of $20,000 that day.  The final payment will be due on the balloting deadline and will cost contestants an additional $20,000.