Jean is Back – So Now What?
Alberta’s political theatre just got a heck of a lot more interesting.
On March 15th, Brian Jean easily walked away with the victory in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection, amassing more than 63 per cent of the popular vote. Voter turnout was low with only 5,837 of 24,048 electors voting (according to Elections Alberta’s unofficial results). However, there is nothing uncommon about low voting numbers for byelections – even if there was little common about the circumstances of the vote itself.
JEAN (UCP) - 63.6%
MANCINI (NDP) -18.5%
HINMAN (WIPA) - 10.8%
HUSSEIN (LIB) - 3.6%
LANDSIEDEL (AP) - 1.7%
DEHEER (IND) - 1.0%
BURNS (APA) - 0.4%
MELLOTT (IPA) - 0.4%
The official byelection results will be made available on March 25th on the Elections Alberta website.
Although Jean will not be sworn in as an MLA until April 5th, the former leader of the Wildrose has wasted no time and has already been campaigning in Edmonton. Reports surfaced that Jean held an event the day after the byelection which was attended by some United Conservative MLAs. Even his victory speech on March 15th was focused more on the leadership review than his own race.
“I am going to tell you, first of all, that I had great hopes for Jason Kenney. I did. I left politics thinking that I left it in great hands. An amazing talker but not a great decision maker. And now, here we are. My friends, we need to expect better from our politicians.”
On Thursday, he attended Question Period in the Legislature in the Speaker’s Gallery. Evidently, his presence may have created some heightened emotions for MLAs as he was referred to numerous times. But until he is sworn-in early next month, Jean will have to settle for watching from the gallery until he can once again voice his thoughts in the Assembly.
Alberta politics is many things. Boring has never been one of them.
So now what?
Well, we know what is going to happen in the immediate future. Both Premier Kenney and Brian Jean will spend most of their days on their respective campaigns leading up to the leadership review. Jean has been attending events and doing a media tour while Premier Kenney is trying to mobilize political staff to volunteer for the “yes” campaign on their off time.
On the road to the leadership review, Alberta just passed the “next exit” sign. So that is where we will turn our attention now.
Is the Leadership Review Now a Forgone Conclusion?
Absolutely not.
With Brian Jean officially back in the Legislature, many are suggesting that the Premier’s days are now numbered at the top of the UCP pyramid. While his return does not exactly help Premier Kenney’s odds of success, there is no reason either side should be too confident of their chances.
The Kenney Camp
When it comes to which individual is the better political organizer, the premier is easily the favourite. This isn’t to say that Jean is not a strong campaigner - you don’t survive in politics for as long as he did (and lead the official opposition) if you aren’t. But when it comes to the head-to-head comparison, the Premier comes out on top. He is well connected and a parliamentarian through and through.
The question for the premier this time is ‘does political savvy make up for a disenfranchised base and population’? Only time will tell on that front.
So far, the Premier has been campaigning on the idea that he is what stands in the way of the “extremist” segments of conservatism from taking over the UCP and moving the party further to the right. While this narrative has not been dominant, he has nevertheless seen an improvement in polling – both for himself and the UCP more broadly.
The Jean Camp
Brian Jean presents a rather interesting conundrum for UCP members. Of course, it should be said that a possible leadership convention is not guaranteed to result in Brian Jean being the next Premier of Alberta; however, he has made it very clear that is his end goal.
Jean has campaigned on removing Premier Kenney and transforming the UCP into what it was always intended to be – a party of united conservatives. He has put significant focus on the division that his policies have put in place, questioning the premier’s decision-making abilities.
In short, Jean’s presence gives UCP members the opportunity to ask the question of ‘do we want a do-over from 2017, or do we want to set a whole new direction for our party?’
So Now What?
Reports have been swirling that there are more than 14,000 UCP members registered to vote on April 9th in Red Deer. It’s safe to say that most of those individuals have already made up their mind, one way or the other. Regardless of the outcome of the leadership review, the UCP as a whole must be incredibly pleased with the plethora of new members.
The difference at the leadership review will be which campaign can get more “undecideds” to attend and vote for their campaigns.
As it stands, the vote is simply too close to predict at this point in time. Premier Kenney has said that all he requires to remain as leader per the UCP Constitution is 50% + 1. He is correct. However, it is known that the precedent for leadership reviews as a social convention in Alberta is much higher. Anything other than a clear majority “yes” vote for the premier will undoubtedly result in continued party instability – not an ideal prospect one year removed from (likely) the next provincial election.
Political Scientist from Mount Royal University, Duane Bratt, said in an interview with CBC that “the day after the leadership review, I can't imagine a situation where both Kenney and Jean are in the caucus.” This would be a logical outcome for a number of reasons; however, it may not be as clear-cut as it seems on the surface.
If Premier Kenney were to win, he would need to be mindful that the expulsion of Jean could lead to the establishment of a new party and the subsequent fracturing of the UCP. In Alberta, a party needs to hold at least four seats in order to be recognized as official and have greater funding for research. There are already two independent MLAs that would be eager to find a new political home if they cannot return to the UCP (a possibility if the premier loses on April 9).
Giving Jean the boot could lead to dissident MLAs within Caucus subsequently leaving the party in search of bluer political pastures.
It is possible that we could be thrown into a snap election in the coming weeks if certain factors are met. While this is the most unlikely of outcomes, the chances of an election are greater than zero. The premier has previously said that he had no intention of triggering an election, but “at the same time, we live in a Westminster Parliamentary System, so if the government loses the confidence of the legislature, there has to be a dissolution.”
At this stage, no one should drop everything they are doing and transition to election mode. Right now, it is best just to know that anything can happen as we are in a very dynamic political time.