Anticipation Grows Ahead of Crucial Fall
On October 30th, the 31st Legislature will kick off in Edmonton with a Speech from the Throne. At the time of writing, the fall session is scheduled to run from the end of October until December 7th with a week-long sessional break the week of November 13th.
As discussed in earlier issues of The NEWS, Bill 1 is expected to be introduced as the Tax Protection Amendment Act, 2023. The bill has been described as including clauses requiring a referendum to increasing personal or business taxes as promised by Premier Danielle Smith during the last provincial election. While the fall sitting is scheduled to end in early December, there have been some rumbling that it could be shortened to end sometime in November.
As always, we look forward to bringing you leading coverage of all things Alberta politics when MLAs return to the Legislative Assembly in just under two month’s time.
But that is not the focus of this article.
For both the United Conservatives and New Democrats, events this fall could have a profound impact on the future of their respective parties. That is where we will turn our attention to today.
United Conservative Party AGM
From November 3-4, UCP members from across the province will convene in Calgary for their party’s annual general meeting. It will be the first time the UCP membership has congregated since winning a majority government on May 29th. Although this upcoming meeting will look like a normal AGM, the results of this event could have a significant impact on what the next two years look like for the governing party.
In addition to electing directors to the provincial board of the party, one of the key positions up for grabs is the top job – president.
At the end of August, outgoing president Cynthia Moore announced that she would not seek re-election to her position with the party. She was first elected to the position in 2021 as the successor to Ryan Becker. For many, she was viewed as being a close ally to former Premier Jason Kenney – joining at a time when the momentum behind calls to initiate a leadership review was growing quickly.
In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Moore spoke to her decision to leave, saying her decision to leave was a personal one but acknowledged the challenges that come with managing a united right.
“The big thing is the how difficult it is to keep a conservative coalition together – that’s the key in all of this. And probably the reason why we have a new leader.”
At this time, only Rick Orman has declared his candidacy for the position.
The former energy minister was heavily involved in the merger discussions between the PCs and Wildrose following the 2015 provincial election. Orman has been involved in conservative politics since the early 1980’s, having run for a federal PC nomination and working on Don Getty’s leadership campaign in 1985. He sat as an MLA from 1986 until 1993.
He made multiple attempts to return to provincial politics as he participated as a candidate in the PC leadership races in 1992 (Ralph Klein) and 2011 (Alison Redford). He also spent his time serving as the president of the Calgary Centre association for the Conservative Party of Canada.
The outcome of this race will be critical for many reasons – one of those being the future of Danielle Smith as the leader of the UCP. The party’s governance requires a leadership review to “be held at one out of every three Annual General Meetings of the Party, which must be years where an election date is not fixed by the Election Act.”
As the last leadership review was held in 2022 and a vote is not expected to take place this fall, that leave 2024 and 2025 as the two options for the party. Just as many kept a close eye on the presidency election in advance of Kenney’s leadership review, it is reasonable to expect this race to be subject to similar scrutiny from party members and pundits alike.
Another interesting factor in this race will be the possible influence and involvement of Take Back Alberta (TBA). Back on June 29th, leader David Parker posted a tweet that featured heavy criticism of Moore’s leadership of the board. It is not believed TBA is responsible for Moore’s decision to not seek re-election, but their involvement in the upcoming AGM remains a question.
The group has taken credit for ultimately unseating Jason Kenney and helping Danielle Smith become party leader – this is in addition to their alleged involvement in helping elect board members at last year’s AGM.
Alberta NDP Provincial Council
Unlike their conservative counterparts, the New Democrats will not be holding a formal convention or AGM this year (this is expected to happen sometime in the fall of 2024). However, the party is expecting to host its provincial council (like a mini-convention) sometime in October.
As will be true with the UCP AGM, there very well could be some leadership undertones present during the event.
Rachel Notley has not definitively indicated whether or not she will remain the leader of the NDP as the enter their second consecutive term as the official opposition. Back in June, Notley told reporters that "I don't have a clear timeline. But what I can promise you is that when I've engaged in what I think is a responsible level of consideration, I'll be sure to let you know.”
That position has yet to change – and Notley has yet to tip her hand one way or another.
With all of that said, the first instance we are likely to hear any rumblings of a leadership decision sometime around this event.
For the NDP, the rules for triggering a leadership review vary from the UCP. Where the UCP requires a leadership review at one of at least every three AGMs, the NDP have an automatic leadership review at the first convention following a provincial election. Given that this fall’s meeting will be a provincial council rather than a convention, this clause will not be triggered in 2023 (the party typically holds their convention once every two years).
In the event Notley does decide to step down, the Alberta NDP Constitution outlines how the votes will be counted.
Article 6.01(a)(i) reads, “the ballots cast by Party members shall be weighted to a total of at least 75% of the votes counted in a leadership election, with the balance of up to 25% of the votes being allocated among the affiliated members. The Provincial Council shall determine the exact percentage to be allocated to affiliates, based on the number of affiliated organizations at the time that the Leadership election is called.”
Similar to the UCP, the NDP uses run-off voting until one candidate earns 50%+1 of the vote.
Should a leadership race be called, it is more than likely the rules put in pace for the 2014 campaign that resulted in Rachel Notley’s victory will be updated significantly. Back then, candidates were required to pay a $5,000 non-refundable deposit and collect 50 signatures from party members in order to be on the ballot. They were also subject to a $100,000 spending cap.
By comparison, the 2022 UCP leadership race required a $150,000 entry fee ($25,000 of which was a “compliance deposit for good conduct and compliance”).