Paving the Runway to Election 2023

With only two weeks remaining on the sitting schedule before MLAs break for the holidays, the provincial government creeps ever closer to the precipice of what many expect to be one of the most divisive elections in Alberta’s history. Gone are the days of prospective vote splits and strategic voting – Albertans will be expected to make a choice between to diametrically opposed platforms that will take our province down two very different paths.

It's Smith or Notley.

Currently, the first sitting dates of 2023 remain absent from the sessional calendar. Throughout the UCP’s term in government, MLAs have traditionally returned to the Alberta Legislature towards the end of February to table the budget; however, there have been rumblings that this administration may push back the budget to early spring. While this has yet to be confirmed, we continue to monitor for any developments on this front.

The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act has officially passed third reading and awaits royal assent. For more on this story, please visit page 5 for more on this development.

Overall, not much remains for business to be completed between now and December 22nd. We expect session to adjourn rather than prorogue at the end of December, so there is no real pressure for the government to pass any legislation other than the Inflation Relief Statutes Amendment Act, 2022 and the Alberta Health Care Insurance Amendment Act, 2022.

In effect, the latter piece of legislation is related to the new agreement between the Government of Alberta and the Alberta Medical Association – it would not be looked upon favourably on either side of the aisle for this bill to be unnecessarily delayed.

The former is the UCP’s proposed answer to inflation relief which might see a bit more debate in the house before it is passed. The measures include mostly targeted relief rather than broad based fiscal support, specifically on families and seniors earning annual household incomes of $180,000 or less. For a breakdown of what the proposed supports include, a press release is available on the Government of Alberta website.

During second reading in the Legislature, Minister of Affordability and Utilities Matt Jones spoke to the need for these measures.

“Measures we have taken in the past to pay down provincial debt and put our fiscal house in order made it possible for our government to be there now to support Albertans when and where they need it the most. This legislation appropriately balances the need to provide both broad-based relief and targeted support for those most impacted by soaring costs. Alberta’s affordability action plan is the largest of its kind in Canada.”

Members of the opposition have argued that this relief does not go far enough, specifically for low-income Albertans who have to rely on AISH payments and saw their payments de-indexed early in the UCP’s first term in office.

MLA Marie Renaud spoke to this in the house, saying “Mr. Speaker, it is my sincere hope that through debate on this bill this government will realize, ‘Maybe we didn’t get it right; maybe we didn’t fix enough; maybe we didn’t go far enough,’ and they will entertain some amendments that will actually improve life for people in Alberta that are vulnerable, that are low income, or that are disabled, because what is in this bill is not enough. It doesn’t undo the years of damage.”

Another interesting piece of legislation being debated in the Legislature is Bill 6: Police Amendment Act, 2022. This bill proposes to reform some aspects of police oversight in Alberta as the province continues to mull over its options for severing the policing agreement with the federal government in favour of a provincially operated force.

One of the proposed reforms includes the establishment of a new, independent Police Review Commission as a way to “restore public confidence, reduce barriers for Albertans, and see complaints resolved more quickly.” The existing Alberta Serious Incident Response Team (ASIRT) would be absorbed into the new commission and “continue to handle all cases involving death or serious injuries, as well as serious and sensitive allegations” according to the bill’s fact sheet. Other complaints would be managed by a new investigations unit operated which will oversee municipal and First Nations police services.

The legislation also proposes to have police develop community safety plans to address crime prevention, addictions treatment, housing, and employment supports.

Edmonton Police Chief Dale McFee was optimistic about the changes in the press release.

“Our strategic plan similarly is focused on growing options for diversion from the criminal justice system, and boosting diversity and inclusion initiatives. We are optimistic about the inclusion of provisions to mitigate politicization and manage governance disputes while maintaining the independence of policing.”

The Lead Up to Election 2023

Now that the most contentious piece of legislation has been passed, the remainder of session has been strategically organized to be as straightforward and positive as politically possible. For the United Conservatives, the party is not interested in giving the official opposition any free ammunition to use against the government that will be fresh in the minds of Albertans. Conversely, the NDP will continue to do their job as opposition to find holes and weaknesses in government legislation that it can use to frame the conversation a certain way.

The two parties have two very different objectives they ought to pursue in order to achieve electoral success on May 29, 2023.

For the UCP, their goal should be to find ways to create a clear separation from the Jason Kenney-era decision making that found the conservatives trailing in the polls for the majority of the current governing term. At this stage, Premier Smith is following through on her position that the Kenney administration did not do enough to stand up for Albertans as was promised in the 2019 election – hence the need for the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act. While Premier Smith represents a clear departure from the previous administration, she still must cope with the fact that the remainder of the UCP largely remains intact.

For the NDP, their obstacle is combating the instinct of carrying out their work as the official opposition while also demonstrating to Albertans that they are a government in waiting. Despite the need to address concerns with the existing government and explaining what, in their view, is problematic with the UCP, they also must provide a clear alternative beyond “we are not them” – a narrative that often does not bring electoral success. In 2019, the opposition UCP ran on a platform of “Jobs. Economy. Pipelines.” which was backed up by a comprehensive policy document that outlined exactly what the party planned on accomplishing.

Whether you agreed with the UCP’s platform or not, it was an effective strategy that ultimately saw them become government that year. Of course, the NDP will be running on a much different platform, but they would be wise to ensure that they spend at least as much time sharing their vision with the province as they will in attacking the UCP’s record in the Legislature.

For Albertans, two considerably different paths lie before us in the next election. Regardless of your political stripe, ensure you spend as much time as possible reading all platforms. Of course, we will be here to help provide our insight along the way.

This will be the final issue of The NEWS released in 2022. From all of us here, thank you for what has been an incredible year. Whether you are a client or a reader, we appreciate you being part of our family at Alberta Counsel. We wish you and yours a safe and wonderful holiday season.

We will return with a new issue of The NEWS on January 10, 2023.