Mining for Support - The Prospects of a Snap Election
A number of changes to Alberta’s electoral system were amended when the United Conservative Party tabled Bill 81 at the end of 2021. While controversy swirled around certain aspects of the legislation (that we will not get into here), one key amendment resulted in a fixed election date for the province. When the bill went into force and effect, the law was changed to stipulate that the last Monday in the month of May as election day to “level the playing field for all political parties, remove the advantage a governing party currently has, and increase trust in the democratic process.”
Indeed, Albertans have been bracing themselves for a May 29th, 2023 election date ever since. As Section 38.1(2) of the Elections Act reads, “subject to subsection (1), election day for a general election shall be the last Monday in May in the 4th calendar year following the election day of the most recent general election.”
However, Section 38.1(1) indeed leaves the window open for a potential snap election prior to May 29th. That section reads “nothing in this section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, in His Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit.” Given the Legislature is dissolved at the recommendation of the Premier, Danielle Smith does possess the power to catch all other parties off guard.
To be abundantly clear, nothing has been said to date to confirm or deny the potential for a snap election this spring. With that said, there are a number of reasons to see the potential indeed exists that organizations with government relations objectives ought to be aware of.
Why There Could be an Early Election
While there are a number of potential reasons this government could decide to trigger an early election, there is a scenario centred around the upcoming budget that could provide some insight.
When Bill 4, the Fiscal Planning and Transparency (Fixed Budget Period) Amendment Act, 2020 came into force and effect, the law was amended to ensure that “the responsible Minister shall table the main estimates for a fiscal year in the Legislative Assembly during the month of February of the immediately preceding fiscal year.” As the latest sessional calendar was recently released by the Legislative Assembly Office, we know that this budget must be tabled on February 28th as that is the only day that month in which the Legislature will sit.
This opens up two possible avenues for an early election.
In Bill 4, the section immediately following the one quoted above, it indicates that “subsection (1) does not apply in relation to a fiscal year if, for the purpose of holding a general election, the Legislative Assembly is dissolved after August 31 and before March 1 of the immediately preceding fiscal year.”
Of the two scenarios, this may be the most unlikely to occur as it would provide the least favourable returns for the United Conservatives in advance of the election. According to the legislation, it would be feasible for Premier Smith to visit Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani prior to budget day to ask that the Legislature be dissolved for the purposes of a general election.
In order to capitalize on this tactic, Premier Smith would need to provide justification on why a budget cannot be tabled in advance of the election. The most likely response would be something to the effect of it would be a futile exercise to table a budget when our fiscal situation could be entirely different following the upcoming election. However, there is a much more likely strategy to be employed with respect to the budget.
We know that the budget is currently set to be released on February 28th. For the UCP, it may be advantageous to move forward with tabling the main estimates document on that day, followed by the immediate dissolution of the Legislature.
Why would the government table a budget and not pass it before the election? For those unfamiliar with the budget process – once the main estimates are tabled, the Legislative committees sit through estimates. These meetings are established to allow both the government and official opposition an opportunity to dissect the budget lines of each ministry in order to provide a fulsome review what the fiscal plan means for Albertans.
While most are likely familiar with the back and forth witnessed in Question Period, an effective committee meeting (including for estimates) operates more like a cross-examination in a courtroom. This gives an opportunity to the opposition to really dig into the numbers and offer critique about where money was spent, where it wasn’t, and what envelopes the money is coming out of.
There is no reason to think that the UCP will not table a heavy-spending budget. After all, high-spend budgets are election friendly and the province currently enjoys a significant surplus that would permit them to spend dollars they might not otherwise. So that means there will also be plenty for the opposition to critique.
It would also minimize the ability of the opposition to effectively review and critique the budget while candidates are on the campaign trail.
Allowing estimates to proceed also requires the Assembly to sit to conduct their daily business, including Question Period. Given it is not expected there will be any legislation of significance to be tabled between now and the election, it would be unfavourable for the government to open itself to multiple fronts of attack from the opposition immediately before a general election. Given the recent accusations aired by the CBC surrounding the alleged contact between the Premier’s Office and Crown Prosecutors surrounding the Coutts blockade cases, it may be in the government’s best interest to limit their time in the Assembly to avoid certain lines of questioning.
Therefore, it could be an advantage for this government to table the budget before the writ period without allowing for the opposition’s critique in the estimates process.
Why There May Not be an Early Election
Although the budget can be used to justify why the government may opt to dissolve the Assembly early for the purposes of a general election, it can also be used to justify why the election date may not change from May 29th.
As indicated earlier, it is fully expected and reasonable to assume that the upcoming budget will feature many high-spend items that will be torqued in the favour of the United Conservative Party. With Calgary destined to be the primary battleground that will determine who forms government, there could be a number of items that are intended to build support from the city’s undecided population. It will also serve as this government’s first opportunity to “pivot” to a more moderate audience as parties tend to do come election season. Even though going through the estimates process and Question Period could be the source of some obstacles for the UCP, it would also provide the party with a large platform to highlight how favourable this budget will be for Albertans and ultimately allow them to make the budget an election issue – something they would hope to take advantage of.
So, What Next?
There are good arguments to be made for all three of the scenarios laid out above. The least likely (in this writer’s opinion) is for no budget to be tabled at all. On a balance of probabilities, I would argue that we are more likely than not to head to the polls on May 29th, 2023.
Indeed, there is definitely upside to tabling a budget than immediately triggering an election in order to minimize negative attention in the media; however, the benefits outweigh the risks for the governing party to pass the budget even though it would require sitting in the Assembly and enduring the estimates process. Having the opportunity to get ahead of the curve to use the process to get out key messages and “talk-up” the budget is something that would benefit the UCP in a general election.
It is, by no means, a fool-proof strategy as the upcoming election is currently a toss-up. However, you have to play the odds when it comes to tough strategic decisions – it is up to the UCP to decide on what gamble they choose to make.