How the Second UCP Debate Could Impact Who Becomes Premier

There is still some time remaining before the second leader of the United Conservative Party will be selected from the BMO Centre in Calgary on October 6th, but the final turn before the finish line is very much in sight.

Next week, we will see two major dates crossed off every candidate’s calendar. On August 30th, the UCP will host their second and final official leadership debate from the capital at the Citadel. On September 2nd, the party will be mailing out ballot packages to the membership. Once the Labour Day long weekend hits and Alberta Day is in the rearview mirror, this race will officially be in the home stretch.

It is rare for a debate to completely change the momentum of any candidate’s election bid, especially given the timing of this upcoming event. However, the Edmonton debate will be the last opportunity for hopefuls to table their messaging and ideas to the membership (at least in an official capacity). While it is incredibly plausible that a good chunk of the membership has already made a decision of how their ballot will be ranked, this event will be an excellent opportunity for the undecided.

Today, we will preview the August 30th debate for the key storylines to watch and what candidates can do to take advantage of the chance to speak directly to members. As always, nothing in this article should be read as an endorsement or opposition of any candidate. This piece is simply intended to provide some commentary about the race as it stands at the time of writing.

Mail-In Ballot

Before we get to the debate preview, we’d be remiss to not mention one important variable that could absolutely help shape the outcome of the leadership contest. With only a few days separating the debate and ballot distribution, candidates would be wise to push for their supporters to get their ballots in as soon as possible.

While mail-in ballots have been the subject of some division in recent years, the absence of postal ballot controversy or scandal during Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership review should provide some confidence to those hesitant. It could prove to be advantageous to those candidates that are able to meaningfully mobilize supporters to vote early. Locking in guaranteed support in advance of ballot day on October 6th is a fantastic insurance policy for any campaign team.

Carrying the Momentum

There is little dispute at this stage of the campaign that dark horse candidate Danielle Smith is indeed the frontrunner to become premier on October 6th. Yes, it does seem odd to refer to the current polling leader this way, but forget not that many had written her campaign off before it even got off the ground. For many, this was going to be a race between Brian Jean and whoever would be ordained as the ‘establishment candidate’. Nevertheless, the Smith campaign has built up a sizable lead with just over one month until the race comes to a close.

Pundits and politicos should not be surprised to see Smith in the pole position at this stage. In 2012 when she led the Wildrose into the general election, many had dubbed her to be the premier-in-waiting until the now infamous “lake of fire” incident that thrust one of her candidates into the news for the wrong reasons about one week before Albertans marked their ballots. The story proved to be a turning point in the election that would ensure yet another Progressive Conservative victory.

This time, there have been no incidents that have slowed her momentum. Yes, there was plenty of controversy stemming from Smith’s comments about cancer patients earlier in the campaign. However, she has found a way to remain at the top despite this. Even her proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act wedge issue has proven to be incredibly favourable for her popularity with eligible voters.

For Team Smith, a strong showing at this final debate may just be enough to lock in the votes necessary to move into Room 307 in the Legislature this fall. The key for Smith in this debate will be to continue promoting herself as a unifier of conservatives and the person who will move forward with “Alberta First” initiatives. This is what made her successful in the first debate in Calgary in July.

Candidates Fighting for Messaging Time

There is only so much time and space available during any campaign for a candidate to get their ideas and values in front of their electorate. Typically, candidates unleash blocks of messaging and policy following their launch which becomes the subject of the first debate. Then anything discussed between debates is what ends up on the next event’s docket.

Since the last debate, we have begun to see a bit more from candidates. Jean has been releasing chunks of agriculture policy, Travis Toews has been discussing the need to improve EMS response, and Rebecca Schulz has been putting ideas forward to address affordability concerns for Albertans.

It is not ideal to table new ideas during a debate as this gives your opponents an immediate opportunity to refute and dismiss before anyone can even make a decision for themselves. However, this group of candidates may not have any other option but to use this debate as a self-promotion platform

As we saw in the last debate, nearly everything discussed was related to Danielle Smith as her ideas dominated the news cycle and online discourse. Everyone else was ultimately forced to discuss what we referenced above with little opportunity to shape the narrative of their own campaigns.

We have slowly begun to see more from the other candidates, but the goal of anyone not named Danielle Smith at the next debate will be to lead the narrative with their own messaging and avoid giving other campaigns free advertising.

Why is it so integral when we just explained that debates are usually not the time to do exactly this? The answer can once again be found in the mail-in ballot variable. There is a very small window between the debate on August 30th and the start of balloting on September 2nd. Those who find themselves behind the 8 ball cannot afford to miss any opportunity to make their case to undecided United Conservative members.

Yes, your ideas will be critiqued and attacked. However, it is a bigger risk to go into the ballot period and not have your electorate know what you want to do as the next premier and what you stand for. Additionally, every moment your ideas are being discussed is one that your opponent’s messaging is starved of oxygen.

At this stage of the game, each candidate will need to make a calculated risk/reward assessment to determine how exactly they need to proceed on debate day.

UCP Membership Sales

According to a press release from the UCP, the party has “soared to 123,915 members, more than doubling the close to 60,000 members the Party had before the start of the leadership race in June and raising nearly a million dollars for the Party in membership dues.”

While membership numbers do not have any direct impact on how the debate will unfold next week, these numbers do tell us a couple of things:

1.       Approximately 2.7% of the population will have a say in who becomes premier until the general election in 2023; and

2.       We know the minimum number of members the party will carry into the 2023 general election.

Equally important is what these numbers do not tell us:

1.       What regions these new members reside in (a CBC report during the leadership review gave a breakdown of how many members each constituency association held); and

2.       How the UCP membership numbers match up to the NDP’s (the opposition has not released updated numbers in some time).

While we are still some time away from election season, both the UCP and NDP have turned up their campaign-style messaging in recent weeks. As a new leader is handed the keys to the province, expect both sides to ramp up communications efforts for the remainder of this legislative term.

The election is currently set for Monday, May 29, 2023.