A Path to Victory
On October 6th, UCP members will have elect their new party leader and, by extension, Alberta’s next premier. Let’s take a closer look at some of the leading candidates vying to become the 19th premier of our province.
Danielle Smith
Danielle Smith is a household name and the perceived front-runner in the race for leadership. In her shoes, many in politics would have headed out of the public eye. Instead, Smith got to work re-establishing her brand hosting her own show in radio.
Now after years of her rebuilding her image, many who at one time called for her resignation are supporting her bid for leader of the UCP.
For those who love her, Smith’s victory is a foregone conclusion. All the campaigns are responding to her policy ideas and the success of her assurances of no more lockdowns and putting Alberta First are signalling that she is the one to beat. Smith is a polarizing candidate so the question remains - in the end, will she have the necessary momentum to propel herself across the finish line?
Travis Toews
Travis Toews is currently polling among the top candidates in the leadership race and leads in Caucus support. Prior to the last provincial election campaign, Travis Toews spent his career in the private sector, serving as President of the Canadian Cattleman’s Association among other notable roles.
While Toews did not have the same initial level of name recognition as Danielle Smith and Brian Jean, he does have a proven track record of balancing the provincial budget as finance minister and leading Alberta through the challenging financial times the province has faced over the last few years. Rightly or wrongly, Toews is seen as the establishment candidate who will continue down the same lines as Jason Kenney.
To his supporters, Toews is perceived as a steady hand at the helm with a measured approach. A proven leader who will continue to prioritize Alberta’s economy and put Albertans first. To his challengers, Alberta needs a change in leadership that they don’t believe Toews can deliver.
Brian Jean
Brian Jean is the first candidate who declared his intentions to vie for UCP leadership before Jason Kenney’s review date was even a certainty. Jean has led a provincial party before and has strong name recognition among Albertans. The question is, in the current crowded field, does he have a path to victory?
Some say his policy initiative to shine a light on the rising cost of gas in Alberta merely coincided with Albertans seeing price relief at the pumps (some say it was the catalyst for). This was a win for him. His indication that he would have put Rachel Notley in his COVID-19 cabinet had he been leader at the time is a decision that confuses many in his base. Still, Brian Jean moves steadily forward and remains a front runner in the race to lead the province. As Alison Redford and others have shown, it is not always the front runner who reigns victorious on election day.
Rebecca Schulz
Rebecca Schulz is not to be counted out. Her first job in politics was working for former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall (who has endorsed her bid). Other conservatives with serious political clout are backing her campaign, including campaign co-chairs Rona Ambrose and Stephanie Kusie. She has served as a cabinet minister for the same length of time as Travis Toews, and she negotiated Alberta’s billion-dollar childcare deal with the federal government as the Minister of Children Services.
She is not polarizing in the way that other candidates are, and her campaign has put forward policy initiatives that have the potential to make a difference in the lives of Albertans. The challenge she faces is her name recognition. However, on a preferential ballot, a well positioned candidate as number two on other candidates’ first place ballots can be a successful path to victory - just ask Ed Stelmach.
The race is far from over. Voters are asking themselves can the candidate I am supporting win the nomination and the general election or are they destined to become the leader of the Opposition come 2023? Is there a particular issue like an Alberta police force that will emerge as the defining issue of this campaign, or will personal brand be the deciding factor?’
Even during the recent divisive UCP leadership review, only 34,298 members cast their ballot which is roughly half of the party’s membership at that time. Come October 6th, it will be very telling to see how many of the over 123,000 eligible UCP members cast their vote and exercised the rare opportunity to directly select Alberta’s next Premier. Only time will tell.