Welcome to Election 2023
By this time next month, Albertans will know which party will lead our province over the next four years.
In our 118 years in confederation, we have never experienced a minority government in the Legislature – this next term will be no different. However, this may very well be the most polarizing election in Alberta’s history. After electing a two-party government in 2019, we are entrenching ourselves as a two-party system given the relative weakness of the parties not named the UCP and NDP. This does not help to tone down polarity.
Most of the polling available over the course of the year really seem to drive this point home. Multiple outlets have the two parties within the margin of error of forming government while some even highlight how tight of a race we are seeing in Calgary (which will serve as the main battleground of Election 2023).
Expect to see parties play table tennis with the lead over the coming weeks as platform commitments begin to roll out.
Today, we will take a look at the campaign launch events for both the UCP and NDP to see how each set the stage for the election period.
UCP Launch
Unsurprisingly, both of Alberta’s major political parties opted to launch in Calgary. For the UCP, they officially kicked-off writ day in a neighbourhood in Calgary-South East. Danielle Smith took to the podium and wasted no time to getting to her party’s first major promise of the campaign.
“A re-elected United Conservative Government will create a new 8 per cent tax bracket on income under $60,000. This means every Albertan earning over $60,000 will save $760.” - Danielle Smith
In addition, the party promised to index tax brackets to inflation and that the fuel tax holiday will be extended to the end of 2023.
Source: YouTube (United Conservative Party)
A major strategy of the UCP in this year’s provincial election has clearly been to make the cost of living the primary ballot box question. During the launch, Smith took time to contrast her party’s record over the past four years with the record of the previous NDP government (2015-2019) and the impacts of the increase to federal carbon pricing on families.
Prior to May 1, Smith also attended launch events in both Edmonton and Calgary on April 29th.
Day two for the UCP was much quieter on the announcement front as the party made no new announcements to speak of.
NDP Launch
Like the UCP, the Alberta NDP spent day one of the election period in the province’s largest city. At a tech start-up non-profit centre, leader Rachel Notley spent most of her launch time discussing the party’s overall message for the election instead of putting the focus on a cornerstone platform item. She also reiterated a number of previously announced commitments. However, it is worth noting that her speech did include a promise that the NDP will not increase personal taxes on Albertans.
For Notley and the NDP, the focus was tied to a few key items: health care, education, affordability, and leadership trust.
“We won’t make change for change’s sake. We will keep the good ideas from the last four years but get rid of the chaos and unpredictability. And when we say something in the morning, we will still mean it at night.” – Rachel Notley
Source: YouTube (Rachel Notley)
The NDP face an interesting challenge they must overcome if they hope to form government again in 2023. In the previous election, their messaging focus on former leader Jason Kenney’s past was partly responsible for the NDP’s demotion to Official Opposition status in 2019. In her kick-off speech, one could tell that they have learned their lesson. While neither party leader can completely ignore what the other is doing, the key is to find a balance.
On day two, the NDP spent their time discussing their plans to improve access to primary health care through the creation of family health teams. This is not a new campaign promise for the party as it was first announced some time ago; however, this is an important piece of their election strategy as they would like to see health care as a top ballot issue in 2023.
Signs of Momentum
When it comes to elections, it is important to remember that a campaign is a marathon and not a sprint. In the early days, both parties will try to make bold power plays to make their way into the news cycle and give people a reason to be excited about their brand.
However, what will be most important is to see which party steers the messaging direction of the campaign and puts the other on the defensive. At this stage, neither party holds that advantage.
Both parties are going to spend considerable effort to try and control the message in Calgary as the city is very much up for grabs. The UCP already kickstarted this initiative with the announcement of $330 million coming from the province to support the new arena MOU. While this has put the NDP in a position to respond, it has also placed the UCP on their heels as well. You can read more about this in my colleague’s article this week.
You can also expect to see each party put much of their resources into their ground game in Calgary. It is not uncommon to see party volunteers and staff moved around the province during an election to where they are most needed – 2023 will be no different. If you live in Calgary, expect to have more people knocking on your door, dropping off literature, calling your phone, and sending you text messages.
Only four more weeks to go.
