What to Expect from the NDP
One of the rallying cries for uniting Alberta’s two main conservative parties - the Wildrose and the Progressive Conservative Party - was that the NDP would never be able to win unless there was vote splitting to the right of them. The 2015 – 2019 NDP Government was labelled an ‘accidental’ government that would be a footnote in history as long as conservatives in Alberta could put their differences aside and stay united.
As conservative forces united, the result was a commanding victory in 2019. Many wrote off the NDP with dire predictions of the party withering and ultimately disappearing. But of course, as is often the case in politics, a short period of time can bring a lot of changes. The past four years have provided hope for progressives that the NDP’s eulogy was premature.
The pandemic changed political calculations around the world, and of course, Alberta is no exception. Healthcare has become more important in the minds of voters, as have affordability and inflation while oil and gas retreated as a vote determinant. Simmering anger about public health restrictions from the political right also pushed more radical views into the spotlight, activating groups like Take Back Alberta and ultimately leading to the departure of Jason Kenney as Premier. The political ground shifted with the NDP taking up more of the centre and the UCP arguably moving further to the right with the arrival of Premier Danielle Smith.
All of a sudden, it’s a coin toss between the NDP and a United Conservative Party heading into the 2023 election. Yet, despite the astonishing tightness of the upcoming political match, the NDP’s path to victory is still precariously narrow. The party knows it needs to move carefully and thoughtfully to take advantage of this unexpected opportunity. To reach the magic mark of 44 seats, the NDP needs to sweep Edmonton, win about 18 of 26 seats in Calgary, take both Lethbridge seats, and make some gains in the suburban ridings around Edmonton.
Outside of Edmonton, the key to winning seats in these areas will depend on how successful the NDP is in luring ‘soft conservative’ voters. These are voters who voted UCP in 2019 but are still on the fence as to who they will support this time around. Polling shows these voters are open to voting for the UCP but are uncomfortable with Danielle Smith. They also tend to care more about the ‘meat and potato’ issues such as education, health care, a good economy, and affordability compared to the UCP base that tends to be swayed more by pitched battles with Ottawa and sovereignty related platform items.
We can therefore expect the NDP to focus most of its attention on core election issues that are winning topics for the party and will drive the most voters to the orange team: healthcare, education, pensions and housing. Besides focusing on these core issues, the NDP will also work hard to discredit Danielle Smith in the eyes of those soft conservative voters who have lingering questions around trust and competence.
The NDP tried to define Jason Kenney in a negative light in 2019, focusing on his past as an anti LGBTQ activist among other things, which ultimately didn’t work to the degree that they hoped it would. But while Kenney was not well liked, voters generally still saw him as someone who could be taken by his word and who could get things done. Danielle Smith is a different animal, with a propensity to think out loud and put her foot in her mouth. The NDP sees this as an opportunity, but they will still have to tread lightly. Resources will likely focus on boosting Notley, highlighting her positives and contrasting against Smith’s more mercurial nature. The harshest attacks on Smith will likely come from left leaning third-party advertisers rather than the party itself.
How the campaign evolves from these initial strategies will of course depend on how polling evolves. If the NDP is feeling good we can expect a more boring, low-risk campaign. But if the momentum appears to be tilting towards the UCP we may yet see some bolder policy announcements and sharper attacks.
Let the games begin!
