Election 2023 Anniversary Polling
On May 22, CBC released new polling conducted by Janet Brown. For those unfamiliar with her work, Janet is widely considered one of the most accurate pollsters in our province as her data has most closely resembled the actual election results in 2019 and 2023.
For this article, we will simply share the data collected and provide our own analysis on what the numbers could mean.
This poll mostly focused on “available vote”, meaning how many people responded as saying they are very likely or somewhat likely to cast a vote for one of the parties if an election were being held today. Overall, the United Conservative Party is sitting at around 49% while the New Democrats are hovering at 45% province wide.
Source: Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research - CBC News
The poll also provides some regional numbers. Unsurprisingly, the NDP hold a large lead in Edmonton (54/40) while the UCP hold a significant lead in “other” parts of the province (62/34). In Calgary, the parties are in a dead heat at 46%.
According to the polling disclaimer, the survey was run between May 1 and 15 (n=1,200).
What This Means for the UCP
The Good – You’re Still Winning
For those on the governing side of the aisle, make no mistake that there was concern following the last election. Even though they once again hold a majority, the party lost a significant chunk of its roster in Calgary – the key battleground in 2023 (and likely to be so again in 2027).
The honeymoon period for a returning government is often much shorter than a new one, especially when the governing party loses seats. However, the UCP still enjoys stronger support than the opposition – a big win for the party. Even with controversial bills being introduced back to back, holding a lead means that the voting base for the UCP is still there.
The Bad – The Lead Isn’t Large
While the UCP does enjoy a 4-point lead over the NDP, the UCP would likely prefer to have more breathing room. A factor to keep in mind is that the NDP is currently in the middle of a leadership race. Once a new leader is crowned on June 22, it is expected that they will enjoy a honeymoon period of their own – one that could have put them on top.
There is also the unanswered question about how some of the more controversial bills introduced during this first session will resonate with voters throughout the rest of the term.
What This Means for the NDP
The Good – You’re Keeping it Close
Of course, every political party wants to poll well between elections. Being down 4-points to the UCP is not where the NDP would like to be, but considering the extenuating factors that come with a leadership race (lack of staff, less internal organization, etc.) keeping pace with the governing party is not a bad place to be.
As we mention in the previous section, there is also a good chance that the new leader will enjoy a bit of a honeymoon period that could put the NDP on top. With a membership of 85,000, the next leader will have plenty of opportunity to continue building momentum; however, the real test will be how many of those leadership voters the new leader (and party) can retain between now and the next provincial election in 2027.
The Bad – The UCP Are Still More Popular
While a new leader bump is expected this summer, it is not uncommon for governments to be at their most “unpopular” in the first half of an election term. If this is the UCP’s proverbial polling basement, the next provincial election could prove to be another uphill battle.
Although the last term was anything other than business as usual with the impacts of COVID-19 and a change in leadership, the UCP were able to recover from poor polling before the 2023 provincial election and earn another term as government. The United Conservatives have also been enjoying a resurgence in the fundraising battle which will help them build their war chest more quickly for 2027.
Granted, a big reason the NDP has lost fundraising dollars recently has been the redirection of donations from the party to leadership candidates. Regardless, this is something the opposition party will need to focus heavily on after June 22 to replenish their own war chest.