Uncertainty in Alberta Politics Far from Over

Jason Kenney’s political future may have been the biggest question mark up until now, but ongoing turmoil is still in the forecast. Stakeholders should ensure their strategies are updated accordingly.

You might already be tired of comparisons between the hockey Battle of Alberta and the Battle of UCP Alberta. But like it or not, both battles do have major implications beyond bragging rights, and both are far from over.

While we may not know the ultimate outcome of the hockey battle, we do know the rules and timeline of what comes next. It would be nice if we could say the same of the political battle - but of course,  what happens on that front over the next few weeks and months is still very difficult to predict.

This of course can be frustrating for stakeholders. It is not always tenable to simply wait until the dust has settled to reengage with the Government of Alberta. Much has already been on hold in the Legislature over the past couple of months while the leadership review process dragged on. For stakeholders who are eager to keep or build momentum on their policy priorities, here are some things to keep in mind during the coming months:

1.       Don’t Panic: If you currently have momentum on one or more key policy items, not much is likely to change dramatically in a hurry. The UCP caucus is meeting today, and it is hoped that after this meeting we will have a bit more clarity in terms of who may emerge as interim leader. Jason Kenney may still stay on until a replacement is chosen by party members, or there may be someone who will step in as a ‘caretaker’ premier for the next few months. Either way, it is unlikely that we will see a dramatic shift in the government’s direction or priorities over the next few months. Typically, this period can be counted on as ‘government on cruise control’.

2.       Engage the bureaucracy: Many stakeholders already have good relationships with their department contacts but if you do not, what better time to reach out? In the coming months - and well into 2023 - there will be a fair amount of shuffling on the political level. A scarcity of experience and policy knowledge on the political level means the bureaucracy will be counted on to provide a lot of guidance and briefings. Make sure their message does not clash with yours.

3.       Look out for cabinet shuffle(s): The jockeying for position for the upcoming UCP leadership race has already begun. There will likely be more than one sitting cabinet minister joining the fray, meaning they will have to give up their portfolios and new ministers will take their place. If an interim premier is picked (rather than Jason Kenney holding court until his replacement is picked) you may see some additional shuffling to reward loyalists and relegate foes. There could also be a bloodletting among political staff loyal to Kenney, which could impact the connections you have in your target ministries.

4.       Be engaged but be weary of picking sides: There is no need to disengage from advocating on the political level but be wary about picking sides during the leadership race. The best option may be to simply ensure all candidates are informed about your priorities by meeting with each of them in person. It can be tempting to support a candidate who takes your issue and runs with it, but if you are seen to be too closely associated with one candidate you may find doors closed if someone else wins.

5.       Plan for the election: Don’t forget the big picture. The next provincial election is just a year away and the outcome is still far from certain. Reach out to the other team and make sure you keep them briefed on your policy priorities. Although a snap election is far less likely now, you should still start planning to ensure you know exactly what your organization’s plan is heading into the 2023 election.

Uncertainty and speculation is the name of the game right now and will be for some time. If you sense threats or opportunities for your organization and are not sure how to act, feel free to email me at pr@albertacounsel.com or call me at 780-652-2341.