Resignation and Succession – The Morning After
The question posited to the UCP membership was simply “Do you approve of the current Leader?”
Yes: 17,638 (51.4%)
No: 16,660 (48.8%)
Premier Jason Kenney hit his goal of 50 per cent plus one majority support, a bar that some suggested was far too low for a renewed leadership mandate despite being the standard set out in the UCP constitution. On Wednesday evening, Kenney changed his stance and said his simple majority was insufficient.
"While 51 per cent of the vote passes the constitutional threshold of a majority, it clearly is not adequate support to continue on as leader. That is why tonight I will inform the president of the party of my intention to step down as the leader of the United Conservative Party.”
Thus marks the end of rule for the first ever United Conservative Party leader and premier.
To be absolutely clear, at the time of writing, Jason Kenney indeed remains the leader of the UCP and the Premier of Alberta. He simply announced his intention to resign on a cool spring evening in Spruce Meadows. On May 19th, the battle for his position begins. If he wants to run in the leadership race, that is also an option open to him (though unlikely to occur).
The United Conservative Caucus will be meeting in Calgary to debate. Premier Kenney hopes to remain as leader until a successor can be sworn-in. With that said, power vacuums often lend themselves to power grabs – an interim-leader position is something that tends to be incredibly enticing to those wanting to give their political clout a boost.
If the UCP goes the direction of an interim-leader, that individual will carry all the powers that the Premier’s Office has the privilege to hold. Whoever this may be will follow in the steps of Dave Hancock who is the most recent interim-premier (but still a premier none-the-less).
Early reports suggest some of the potential names for an interim tag include Ministers Nate Glubish, Ric McIver, Rajan Sawhney, Sonya Savage, and Demetrios Nicolaides. There have also been rumblings that caucus chair Nathan Neudorf is eying the position.
My colleague Pascal Ryffel will talk more about the road ahead later in this issue of The NEWS, so I will use my remaining space to talk about what-in-the-heck went down on Wednesday evening.
Low Voter Turnout
Leading up to the original review date of April 9th, the headline story that dominated the news cycle was the rapid purchasing of tickets for the Special General Meeting in Red Deer. At the time, we heard how the party had more than doubled its existing membership – but at no point did ticket procurement slow. By the time eligibility to submit a ballot came to a close, the United Conservative Party had a roster of 59,409 eligible participants.
Of those, only 34,298 cast their vote.
57.7% turn out.
While this is a better turn out than some general elections of years past, this is a surprisingly low number for what was arguably the most significant party-vote in their short history. It also tells us a couple things about the membership.
First and foremost, it confirms that the United Conservative Party was incredibly divided on the subject of Kenney’s leadership. A majority slice of the membership pie is a significant and representative sample size.
Second, this result tells us that Kenney’s camp did not succeed in mobilizing the “yes” vote to the degree that warranted the outgoing premier’s public-facing confidence. “The result is not what I hoped for, or frankly expected.” Throughout the campaign, Kenney had suggested to Albertans that he was confident in his prospects of success to the point that he was sleeping like a baby at night. He told media that his grassroots efforts yielded positive indicators as Albertans would tell him that he has earned their support.
In retrospect, Ralph Klein had heard many similar sentiments leading up to his 2006 review that ultimately produced a support level of 55%.
Condensed Rural Membership
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, rural Alberta constituency associations and the party membership presented their displeasure and frustrations with Kenney’s management of the crisis – and they were often the most vocal in sharing their displeasure.
Last week, we got a better idea of exactly where UCP members reside and the balance between urban and rural. The constituency associations with the highest number of membership holders could be found in (mostly) rural ridings. One thing they have in common – a constituency association board or an MLA that has been incredibly outspoken about their frustrations with Jason Kenney.
Cardston-Siksika and Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre were the two ridings where anti-Kenney nomination candidates were vetted out of the running due to controversial public positions. The next highest total could be found in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, home to the newest MLA – Brian Jean. The last of the top five include Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills (the later of which has had an incredibly vocal constituency association throughout the review process).
Combined, these five constituency associations alone make up 9,107 members. Other notable ridings include Livingston-Macleod (1,109), Taber-Warner (1,137), and Lacombe-Ponoka (1,274). If the support trend follows, it is unsurprising to see the turnout for the “no” vote that we witnessed in Jason Kenney’s Review.
Looking Forward to the 2023 Election
For many months leading up to yesterday’s review results, pundits and politicos alike hypothesized that the best opportunity for the NDP to return to government in the next election was for Jason Kenney to remain as leader of the party. In fact, outspoken UCP members (including Brian Jean) had publicly suggested this repeatedly.
While this writer would personally suggest that this vote was more about Jason Kenney than the possibility of an NDP government, it would be foolish to suggest that the possibility of a second kick at the can for the opposition was not on members’ minds when casting their mail-in ballots.
Opposition leader Rachel Notley offered a brief comment on social media to pre-empt further comment on Thursday.
“I want to thank Jason Kenney for his public service. There are obviously many things about which we don’t agree, but that doesn’t negate the time and sacrifice that goes into taking on the role of Premier.”
A Jason Kenney resignation gives the United Conservatives a fresh start at a critical time in the political cycle. For the party, choosing the right leader that can present a palatable path forward for the wide conservative tent that is the UCP will be what determines if Albertans are willing to give the party a second consecutive term.
The 34,298 UCP members who cast their ballot have effectively changed the NDP’s election game plan overnight. The ballot question that Albertans will vote on May 29, 2023 will no longer be Kenney-centric. It will now become a question of which party can present the best path forward into a post-pandemic world.
Strap yourselves in, Alberta. The next twelve months are about to get even more wild.
